Opinion polling in the Philippine presidential election, 2016

Opinion polling in the Philippine presidential election, 2016, locally known as surveys in the Philippines, is conducted by Social Weather Stations (SWS), Pulse Asia, and other pollsters. The last electoral votes will be cast on Monday, May 9, 2016.

As the positions of president and vice president are elected separately, pollsters usually have separate surveys for each position.

The figure representing the polling numbers for the candidate that topped each poll is emboldened unless two or more candidates tied, when they are all emboldened. Those figures which are within the margin of error are italicized.

Calendar

Graphs

For president

Opinion polling in the presidential election using three-survey moving average.
  Others
  None/undecided

For vice president

Opinion polling in the vice presidential election, using three-survey moving average.
  Others
  None/undecided

Until candidacy filing ended on 16 October, 2016

For president

Single-choice surveys

Date Mar 19–26, 2014 Jun 24–Jul 6, 2014 Sep 8–15, 2014 Nov 14–20, 2014 Mar 1–7, 2015 May 8–18, 2015 May 13–23, 2015 May 30–Jun 5, 2015 Aug 11–18, 2015 Aug 27–Sep 3, 2015 Sep 2–5, 2015 Sep 8–15, 2015
Pollster Pulse Asia[1] Pulse Asia[2] Pulse Asia[3] Pulse Asia[4] Pulse Asia[5] Laylo [6] IBON [7][8] Pulse Asia[9] RMN[10] Pulse Asia[11] SWS[12] Pulse Asia[13]
Sample size 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,500 1,496 1,200 4,718 1,200 1,200 2,400
Margin of error ±3% ±3% ±3% ±3% ±3% ±2.6% ±3% ±3% ±2.5% ±3% ±3% ±2%
Benigno Aquino III Liberal — — — — — — 4.2 — — — — —
Kris Aquino Independent 4 — — — — — — — — — — —
Walden Bello Independent — — — — — — — — — — — 0.1
Feliciano Belmonte Liberal — — — 0.4 — — — — — — — —
Jejomar Binay UNA 40 41 31 26 29 28 13.8 22 26.16 21 24 19
Alan Peter Cayetano Independent 4 5 1 3 3 3 — 2 1.9 1 0.8 1
Noli de Castro Independent — — 3 — — — — — — — — —
Miriam Defensor Santiago PRP 10 7 11 12 9 8 — 6 4.33 4 12 3
Franklin Drilon Liberal — 1 0.4 2 — — — — — — — —
Rodrigo Duterte PDP-Laban — — — — 12 10 7.6 15 12.42 15 11 16
Francis Escudero Independent 9 7 5 7 4 4 — — — — 4 —
Joseph Estrada PMP — 9 10 10 12 10 — 10 6 5 3 5
Richard Gordon Bagumbayan-VNP — 1 2 1 1 — — — — — — —
Panfilo Lacson Independent 2 — 1 3 1 1 — 2 1.83 1 8 2
Loren Legarda NPC — — — — — — — — — — 0.8 6
Bongbong Marcos Independent 5 5 4 4 6 3 — — 0.06 5 4 —
Grace Poe Independent 15 12 10 18 14 24 13.7 30 24.84 27 26 26
Bong Revilla Lakas 3 2 1 1 — — — — — — — —
Leni Robredo Liberal — — 1 — — — — — — — — —
Mar Roxas Liberal 6 7 13 6 4 8 3.8 10 18.14 18 20 20
Gilberto Teodoro Independent — — — 1 — — — — — — 8 —
Antonio Trillanes Independent — — — — 2 — — — — — — —
Manny Villar Nacionalista — — — — — — — — — — 1 —
Others 1 2 — 3 1 — 10.8 1 — — 2 0.5
Refused 0.03 1 — 0.3 1 — — 1 — — 3
Don't know 0.2 0.5 — 0.5 0.1 — — 0.4 — —
None 0.4 1 — 2 2 — 46.1 0.1 — —

Three-choice surveys

The following poll results are for surveys that allowed respondents to choose up to three people. The top three people with the best result are boldfaced; those within the margin of error of the third-best person are italicized.

Date Nov 27–Dec 1, 2014Mar 20–23, 2015 Jun 5–8, 2015 Sep 2–5, 2015
Pollster SWS[14] SWS[15] SWS[16] SWS[17]
Sample size 1,800 1,200 1,200 1,200
Margin of error ±2% ±3% ±3% ±3%
Jejomar Binay UNA 37 36 34 35
Alan Peter Cayetano Independent 3 4 2 1
Miriam Defensor Santiago PRP 10 11 4 2
Franklin Drilon Liberal 1 1 — —
Rodrigo Duterte PDP-Laban 5 15 20 16
Francis Escudero Independent 9 8 4 6
Joseph Estrada PMP 9 11 7 3
Panfilo Lacson Independent 2 1 7 1
Loren Legarda NPC 1 1 1 —
Bongbong Marcos Independent 3 7 3 5
Manny Pacquiao UNA 1 1 — —
Francis Pangilinan Liberal 1 — — —
Grace Poe Independent 21 31 42 47
Bong Revilla Lakas 5 1 — —
Mar Roxas Liberal 19 15 21 39
Antonio Trillanes Independent 5 3 1 —
Manny Villar Nacionalista 2 3 1 1
Others 5 — 1 —
Don't know/refused 15 3 9 5
None 8 12 5 2

For vice president

Date Mar 19–26, 2014 Jun 24–Jul 6, 2014 Sep 8–15, 2014 Nov 14–20, 2014 Mar 1–7, 2015 Mar 20–23, 2015 May 8–18, 2015 May 13–23, 2015May 30–Jun 5, 2015 Jun 5–8, 2015Aug 11–18, 2015 Sep 2–5, 2015 Sep 8–15, 2015
Pollster Pulse Asia[1] Pulse Asia[2] Pulse Asia[3] Pulse Asia[4] Pulse Asia[5] SWS[18]Laylo [6] IBON [7][8] Pulse Asia[9] SWS[19] RMN[10] SWS[20] Pulse Asia[13]
Sample size 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,500 1,496 1,200 1,200 4,718 1,200 2,400
Margin of error ±3% ±3% ±3% ±3% ±3% ±3% ±2.6% ±2.6% ±3% ±3% ±2.5% ±3% ±2%
Lito Atienza Buhay — — — — — — — — — — — 0.9 —
Bam Aquino Liberal 3 — — — — — — — — — — — —
Benigno Aquino III Liberal — — — — — — — — — — — — 6
Kris Aquino Independent 5 — — — — — — — — — — — —
Jejomar Binay UNA — — — — — 7 — 6.8 — 7 — 24 —
Alan Peter Cayetano Independent 6 14 9 13 13 3 11 — 12 2 — 5 9
Miriam Defensor Santiago PRP — — — — — 5 — 1.9 — 2 — — —
Franklin Drilon Liberal — 5 5 6 3 — — — — — — — —
Rodrigo Duterte PDP-Laban — — — — 11 4 11 — 9 3 — 9 —
JV Ejercito UNA 2 — — — — — — — — — — — —
Francis Escudero Independent 20 22 19 20 16 6 16 2.5 15 7 21.36 20 23
Jinggoy Estrada UNA 4 5 5 5 4 0.6 — — — — — 2 —
Joseph Estrada PMP — — — — — 3 7 — — 3 — 7 4
Win Gatchalian NPC — — — 0.3 — — — — — — — — —
Kim Henares Independent — — — — — — — — — — — — 0.1
Panfilo Lacson Independent 5 — — — — 1.6 7 — 6 3 — 3 5
Loren Legarda NPC — — — — — 1.7 — — — 1.4 — 5 —
Bongbong Marcos Independent 5 8 6 8 11 3 5 — 9 1 11.82 7 13
Isko Moreno PMP — — — — — — — — — 0.7 — — —
Manny Pacquiao UNA — — — — — — — — — 0.5 — — —
Francis Pangilinan Liberal — — — — — — — — — — — — 2
Grace Poe Independent 24 26 31 33 29 26 23 15.9 41 21 36.01 27 24
Bong Revilla Lakas 3 4 3 3 2 — — — — 0.7 — — —
Leni Robredo Liberal 1 1 3 1 0.4 — — — 1 — — 3 3
Mar Roxas Liberal 8 — — — — 12 — 5.1 — 12 — — —
Vilma Santos Liberal 5 4 6 — — 0.6 5 — — 1 — 4 5
Antonio Trillanes Independent 7 6 7 8 6 3 6 — 5 1.1 — 4 4
Others 0.3 1 — 1 1 5 — 7.8 1 — — 3 1
Refused 0.2 1 — — 0.2 — — 13 1 22 — 3
Don't know 0.3 1 — 1 1 — — 0.2 —
None — 1 — 2 2 7 — 60.0 0.3 8 —

October 17, 2015 to February 12, 2016

For president

Date Oct 25-Nov 5, 2015 Nov 27, 2015 Dec 4–11, 2015 Dec 4–12, 2015 Dec 12–14, 2015 Jan 5-14, 2016 Jan 8–10, 2016 Jan 24–28, 2016 Jan 27-Feb 4, 2016 Feb 5-7, 2016
Pollster RMN[21] MBC– DZRH[22] Pulse Asia[23] Standard [24] SWS[25] RMN[26] SWS[27] Pulse Asia[28] Standard [29] SWS[30]
Sample size 3,604 7,436 1,500 1,800 1,200 3,578 1,800 1,200 3,000 1,200
Margin of error ±2.5% ±1.14% ±2.6% ±2% ±3% ±2.5% ±2% ±3% ±1.8 ±3%
Jejomar Binay UNA 22.95 18.63 33 23 26 21.49 31 23 22 29
Rizalito David Ang Kapatiran — 0.21 — — 0.1 — — — — —
Miriam Defensor Santiago PRP 11.74 6.22 4 3 4 5.14 3 4 2 4
Rodrigo Duterte PDP-Laban — 30.25 23 19 20 27.86 20 20 20 24
Grace Poe Independent 37.15 25.14 21 28 26 28.59 24 30 29 24
Mar Roxas Liberal 19.64 14.92 21 22 22 15.12 21 20 22 18
Camilo Sabio Independent — 0.08 0.1 — 0.04 — 0 — — —
Roy Señeres PMM — 0.31 0 — 0 — 0.1 — — —
Augusto Syjuco Independent — 0.10 27 — 0 — — — — —
Others — 2.23 — 0.1 0.1 — 0 0.1 — —
Refused — — 0.3 — 1 — 2 0.4 — —
Don't know — — 1 — — 1 — —
Undecided/None 8.52 1.92 1 4 1.79 1 4 2

For vice president

Date Oct 25-Nov 5, 2015 Nov 27, 2015 Dec 4–11, 2015 Dec 4–12, 2015 Dec 12–14, 2015 Jan 5-14, 2016 Jan 8–10, 2016 Jan 24–28, 2016 Jan 27–Feb 4, 2016 Feb 5–7, 2016
Pollster RMN[21] MBC–
DZRH[22] 		Pulse Asia[31] Standard [32] SWS[25] RMN[26] SWS[27] Pulse Asia[28] Standard [33] SWS[30]
Sample size 3,604 7,436 1,500 1,800 1,200 3,578 1,800 1,200 3,000 1,200
Margin of error ±2.5% ±1.14% ±2.6% ±2% ±3% ±2.5% ±2% ±3% ±1.8% ±3%
Albert Alba Ang Kapatiran — — 0.3 — 0.8 — 1 — — —
Alan Peter Cayetano Independent 11.90 18.25 18 18 17 17.36 14 14 15 16
Francis Escudero Independent 38.10 28.49 29 33 30 32.14 28 33 31 26
Gringo Honasan UNA 5.94 6.11 9 6 8 6.32 8 5 5 6
Bongbong Marcos Independent 18.70 24.62 23 19 19 21.60 25 23 25 26
Leni Robredo Liberal 13.65 12.53 11 19 14 14.06 17 18 20 19
Antonio Trillanes Independent 5.38 7.75 4 7 5 6.01 3 4 4 5
Others — — 0.34 — 0.64 — 2.3 — — —
Refused — — 0.1 — 1 — 2 0.3 — —
Don't know — — 1 — — 1 — —
Undecided/None 6.33 2.25 1 5 2.52 2 — 2

February 13 to March 25, 2016

For president

Date Feb 13, 2016 Feb 15-20, 2016 Feb 16-27, 2016 Feb 23-27, 2016 Feb 24-Mar 1, 2016 Mar 1-6, 2016 Mar 4-7, 2016 Mar 8-13, 2016 Mar 15-20, 2016
Pollster MBC–
DZRH [34][35]		 Pulse Asia [36] Pulse Asia[37] Pulse Asia[38] Standard [39] Pulse Asia [40] SWS [41] Pulse Asia [42] Pulse Asia [43]
Sample size 7,572 1,800 5,200 2,600 3,000 2,600 1,800 4,000 4,000
Margin of error ±1.13% ±2% ±1.4% ±1.9% ±1.8% ±1.9% ±2% ±1.5% ±1.5%
Jejomar Binay UNA 23.2 25 24 22 23 21 24 22 23
Miriam Defensor Santiago PRP 3.9 3 3 3 2 3 4 3 2
Rodrigo Duterte PDP-Laban 26.4 21 22 23 24 24 21 25 24
Grace Poe Independent 27 26 26 25 26 28 27 26 28
Mar Roxas Liberal 19 21 19 20 22 20 22 20 19
Refused — — 2 — — — — — —
Don't know — — 2 — — — — — —
Undecided/None 2.3 4 2 — 4 6 1 5 4

For vice president

Date Feb 13, 2016 Feb 15-20, 2016 Feb 16-27, 2016 Feb 23-27, 2016 Feb 24-Mar 1, 2016 Mar 1-6, 2016 Mar 4-7, 2016 Mar 8-13, 2016 Mar 15-20, 2016
Pollster MBC–
DZRH [34][35]		 Pulse Asia[36] Pulse Asia[37] Pulse Asia[38] Standard [44] Pulse Asia [40] SWS [41] Pulse Asia [42] Pulse Asia [43]
Sample size 7,572 1,800 5,200 2,600 3,000 2,600 1,800 4,000 4,000
Margin of error ±1.13% ±2% ±1.4% ±1.9% ±1.8% ±1.9% ±2% ±1.5% ±1.5%
Alan Peter Cayetano Independent 14.8 12 13 12 11 14 11 13 14
Francis Escudero Independent 26.8 29 26 25 30 25 28 24 25
Gringo Honasan UNA 5.5 4 6 6 4 5 5 5 5
Bongbong Marcos Independent 25.1 26 26 26 24 22 26 25 25
Leni Robredo Liberal 18.8 19 18 21 20 21 24 20 21
Antonio Trillanes Independent 6.2 6 5 4 7 6 6 6 4
Refused — — 2 — — — — — —
Don't know — — 2 — — — — — —
Undecided/None 2.7 3 2 — 5 6 2 6 5

March 26 to April 24, 2016

Ballots for local absentee voters were cast from April 27 to 29, 2016.

Opinion polling in the Philippines is conducted by firms such as Social Weather Stations (SWS), Pulse Asia and other pollsters. Frontrunners appear in bold. Those which are within the margin of error are in italics.

For president

Date Mar 26–Apr 1, 2016 Mar 30–Apr 2, 2016 Apr 2, 2016 Mar 29–Apr 3, 2016 Apr 1–7, 2016 Apr 5–10, 2016 Apr 11–16, 2016 Apr 12–17, 2016 Apr 13–18, 2016 Apr 16–20, 2016 Apr 18–20, 2016 Apr 19–24, 2016
Pollster Standard [45] SWS[46] MBC–
DZRH [47] 		Pulse Asia [48] The Center [49] Pulse Asia [50] The Center [51] Pulse Asia [52] D' Strafford [53] Pulse Asia [54] SWS [55] Pulse Asia [56]
Sample size 3,000 1,500 7,490 4,000 1,800 4,000 1,800 4,000 2,800 1,800 1,800 4,000
Margin of error ±1.8% ±3% ±1.13% ±1.5% ±2.5% ±1.5% ±2.5% ±1.5% ±1.9% ±2.3% ±2% ±1.5%
Jejomar Binay UNA 18 20 15.3 20 22 20 23.25 19 19 16 14 18
Miriam Defensor Santiago PRP 2 3 3.5 2 2 1 2 2 4 2 2 2
Rodrigo Duterte PDP-Laban 30 27 36 30 29 32 26.75 34 20 35 33 33
Grace Poe Independent 27 23 28.2 25 25 25 26.25 22 26 23 24 22
Mar Roxas Liberal 21 18 15.2 19 19 18 20.75 18 26 17 19 20
Refused – – – — — 1 — 1 — 0.3 — —
Don't know — – – — — 2 — 3 — — 5 —
Undecided/None 2 – 1.8 4 2.3 1 1 4 4 5 3 5

For vice president

Date Mar 26–Apr 1, 2016 Mar 30–Apr 2, 2016 Apr 2, 2016 Mar 29–Apr 3, 2016 Apr 1–7, 2016 Apr 5–10, 2016 Apr 11–16, 2016 Apr 12–17, 2016 Apr 13–18, 2016 Apr 16–20, 2016 Apr 18–20, 2016 Apr 19–24, 2016
Pollster Standard [45] SWS [46] MBC–
DZRH [47] 		Pulse Asia [48] The Center [49] [57] Pulse Asia [58] The Center [51] Pulse Asia [59] D' Strafford [53] Pulse Asia [54] SWS [55] Pulse Asia [56]
Sample size 3,000 1,500 7,490 4,000 1,800 4,000 1,800 4,000 2,800 1,800 1,800 4,000
Margin of error ±1.8% ±3% ±1.13% ±1.5% ±2.5% ±1.5% ±2.5% ±1.5% ±1.9% ±2.3% ±2% ±1.5%
Alan Peter Cayetano Independent 15 13 18.4 15 16 17 15 16 17 16 16 15
Francis Escudero Independent 28 21 22.6 21 22.5 23 23 20 23 18 18 18
Gringo Honasan UNA 3 5 4.3 4 4.25 4 4 4 1 4 2 2
Bongbong Marcos Independent 25 26 29.8 28 28.5 27 29 29 25 29 25 31
Leni Robredo Liberal 21 19 17.8 22 23.5 21 25 23 32 24 26 26
Antonio Trillanes Independent 5 5 5.5 5 3.75 3 3 3 2 3 5 3
Refused – – – — — 1 — 1 — 0.7 — —
Don't know – – – — — 2 — 3 — — 3 —
Undecided/None 4 – 1.6 5 1.75 1 1 1 — 7 5 5

From April 23 until election day, May 9, 2016

Opinion polling in the Philippines is conducted by firms such as Social Weather Stations (SWS), Pulse Asia and other pollsters. Frontrunners appear in bold. Those which are within the margin of error are in italics.

For president

Date Apr 23–29, 2016 Apr 25–29, 2016 Apr 26–29, 2016 Apr 28–30, 2016 Apr 27-May 1, 2016 May 1-3, 2016
Pollster The Center [60] D' Strafford [61] Pulse Asia [62] Argus [63] Standard [64] SWS[65]
Sample size 1,800 4,500 4,000 6,000 3,000 4,500
Margin of error ±2.5% ±1.2% ±1.5% ±1.9% ±1.8% ±1.0%
Jejomar Binay UNA 23 17 17 19 15 13
Miriam Defensor Santiago PRP 2 3 2 4 2 2
Rodrigo Duterte PDP-Laban 29 25 33 31 32 33
Grace Poe Independent 25 24 21 27 25 22
Mar Roxas Liberal 21 28 22 19 22 20
Refused — — — — — —
Don't know — — — — — 6
Undecided/None — 1 5 — 4 4

For vice president

Date Apr 23–29, 2016 Apr 25–29, 2016 Apr 26–29, 2016 Apr 28–30, 2016 Apr 27-May 1, 2016 May 1-3, 2016
Pollster The Center [60] D' Strafford [61] Pulse Asia [62] Argus [63] Standard [64] SWS[66]
Sample size 1,800 4,500 4,000 6,000 3,000 4,500
Margin of error ±2.5% ±1.2% ±1.5% ±1.9% ±1.8% ±1.0%
Alan Peter Cayetano Independent 15 16 15 13 12 13
Francis Escudero Independent 18 18 18 22 20 15
Gringo Honasan UNA 5 2 3 4 3 3
Bongbong Marcos Independent 31 28 28 33 30 29
Leni Robredo Liberal 25 34 30 24 29 28
Antonio Trillanes Independent 3 1 2 4 3 3
Refused — — — — — —
Don't know — — — — — —
Undecided/None 3 1 4 — 3 9

References

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  2. 1 2 "Even with Aquino endorsement, more prefer Poe over Roxas". Rappler.com. 2014-07-18. Retrieved 2014-07-20.
  3. 1 2 "VP Binay's lead in presidential poll drops". Rappler.com. 2014-09-29. Retrieved 2014-09-29.
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  21. 1 2 http://i360.photobucket.com/albums/oo46/LEONLEON_PHOTO/71eb8e12-ea2d-4c2f-8af9-caa2c0adeab2_zpsu9zrsqjl.jpg
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  32. ↑ https://thelayloreport.wordpress.com/
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  43. 1 2 Esguerra, Christian V. (April 1, 2016). "Poe regains solo lead in ABS-CBN Pulse Asia survey". ABS-CBN News. Retrieved April 1, 2016.
  44. ↑ Panares, Joyce Pangco (2016-03-08). "Chiz still leads VP race; Cayetano fading". Manila Standard. Retrieved 8 March 2016.
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  48. 1 2 Esguerra, Christian V. (April 12, 2016). "Duterte overtakes Poe, claims lead in ABS-CBN survey". ABS-CBN News. Retrieved April 12, 2016.
  49. 1 2 "Duterte, Marcos top The Center poll". The Manila Bulletin. April 14, 2016. Retrieved April 14, 2016.
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  51. 1 2 "It’s still a 4-way fight: Duterte falls, Binay inches up". The Daily Tribune. April 23, 2016. Retrieved April 23, 2016.
  52. ↑ Marcos still leading VP pick – ABS-CBN poll." Rappler, April 24, 2016.
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  57. ↑ "Marcos todo arangkada sa VP race". Pilipino Star. April 10, 2016. Retrieved April 15, 2016.
  58. ↑ "Marcos keeps lead in VP race – ABS-CBN survey". Rappler. April 19, 2016. Retrieved April 18, 2016.
  59. ↑ "Marcos still leading VP pick – ABS-CBN poll." Rappler, April 24, 2016.
  60. 1 2 "Marcos widens lead in new survey". The Manila Times. May 3, 2016. Retrieved May 3, 2016.
  61. 1 2 "Roxas nangunguna sa D' Strafford survey". Philippine Star. May 1, 2016. Retrieved May 2, 2016.
  62. 1 2 "Amid bank controversy, Duterte keeps survey lead". Rappler. May 3, 2016. Retrieved May 3, 2016.
  63. 1 2 "Poe dikit uli kay Digong". Pilipino Star Ngayon. May 6, 2016. Retrieved May 7, 2016.
  64. 1 2 "Duterte on top". Manila Standard. May 5, 2016. Retrieved May 5, 2016.
  65. ↑ "Duterte widens lead in final pre-election SWS survey". Philippine Daily Inquirer. May 6, 2016. Retrieved May 6, 2016.
  66. ↑ "Marcos, Robredo in ‘statistical tie’ in final SWS pre-election poll". Philippine Daily Inquirer. May 6, 2016. Retrieved May 6, 2016.
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