United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, 2016

United Kingdom European Union Membership Referendum Thursday, 23 June 2016
Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?
Results by voting areas   Remain   Leave

The United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, also known as the EU referendum, is scheduled to take place in the United Kingdom and Gibraltar on 23 June 2016.^[1][2] Membership of the European Union has been a topic of debate in the United Kingdom since the country joined the European Economic Community (the Common Market), as it was known then, in 1973.

In accordance with a Conservative Party manifesto commitment, the legal basis for a referendum was established by the passage of the European Union Referendum Act 2015 by the British Parliament. It will be the third plebiscite to be held throughout the United Kingdom, and the second time the British electorate has been asked to vote on the issue of European Union membership: the first was held in 1975, when it was known as the EEC. Membership was approved in that referendum by 67% of voters – but the nature of the EU has changed substantially since then and the result of this referendum is expected to be significantly closer.^[3]

Some of those in favour of a British withdrawal from the European Union – commonly referred to as a Brexit (a portmanteau of British and exit)^{[4][lower-alpha 1]} – argue that being a member of the EU undermines Parliamentary sovereignty, while some in favour of membership argue that in a world with many levels of supranational organisations any theoretical loss of sovereignty is more than compensated by the benefits of membership of the EU. It is argued by those that support withdrawal (most British Eurosceptics) that it would allow the UK to be better able to control immigration, be in a better position to conduct its own trade negotiations, and be free from what they believe to be unnecessary EU regulations and bureaucracy. Those in favour of remaining in the EU argue that leaving the EU would risk the UK's prosperity, diminish its influence over world affairs, jeopardize national security by reducing access to common European criminal databases, and result in trade barriers between the UK and the EU. In particular, they argue that leaving the EU would lead to job losses, delays in investment coming to the UK and risks to small business as well as the larger ones.^[6]

History

In his 2015 election campaign, David Cameron promised to renegotiate the EU membership and later hold a referendum

In January 2013, David Cameron promised that, should the Conservatives win a parliamentary majority at the 2015 general election, the UK Government would negotiate more favourable arrangements for continuing British membership of the EU, before holding a referendum as to whether the UK should remain in or leave the EU.^[7] German and French political leaders countered by warning that the UK could not pick and choose its membership terms while simultaneously advocating Britain should continue its membership.^[8] Some public polls in France and Germany favoured a British exit.^[8] The United States warned against a British exit from the European Union, arguing that it would reduce the British "voice" in the EU as well as not being in the national interest of the United States.^[9]

In response to David Cameron's January 2013 speech on the EU, several countries submitted their views on the proposal and on UK-EU relations. The U.S. Obama administration expressed its belief that the United Kingdom is stronger in the European Union, and that the EU is stronger for having Britain as a member.^[10] French President François Hollande, speaking at the European Parliament, said there could be no à la carte option for European Union membership.^[11] In response to British Foreign Secretary William Hague's review of EU competencies, the Japanese Government stated: "The Government of Japan ... expects that the UK will maintain a strong voice and continue to play a major role in the EU".^[12] In July 2013, a letter from the Australian Foreign Minister Bob Carr said "Australia recognises the UK's strength and resilience and looks forward to seeing it continue as a leading economy and effective power. Strong effective membership of the EU contributes to this."^[13] The Swedish finance minister, Anders Borg, called the referendum "a very serious matter and a matter for some concern" saying "We have been signalling to the British government that we see it as very important that they act cautiously and in a manner that safeguards the British role in the European Union.^[14] The Norwegian foreign minister, Espen Barth Eide, said "If somebody in the UK thinks that the Nordics are an alternative, then they should come to the Nordics and discover they are European."^[14]

When the Conservative Party won an unexpected majority of seats in the House of Commons in the May 2015 general election, David Cameron reiterated his party's manifesto commitment to hold an "In-Out" referendum on UK membership of the European Union by the end of 2017, but only after "negotiating a new settlement for Britain in the EU".^[15] The planned referendum was included in the Queen's Speech on 27 May 2015.^[16] It was thought at the time that Cameron was planning to hold this referendum in October 2016,^[17] Government-sponsored legislation to authorise the referendum came before the House of Commons the following day just three weeks after the election, being brought by the foreign secretary Phillip Hammond.^[18]

Cameron had previously rejected proposals to hold a referendum on Britain's membership of the EU, but had suggested the possibility of a referendum at some later date to ensure that the UK's position within an evolving EU had the "full-hearted support of the British people".^[19] Under Ed Miliband's leadership between 2010 and 2015, the Labour Party ruled out an In-Out referendum unless there was a further transfer of powers from the UK to the EU.^[20] In their manifesto for the 2015 general election the Liberal Democrats pledged to hold an In-Out referendum only in the event of there being a change in the EU treaties.^[21] The UK Independence Party (UKIP), the British National Party, the Green Party,^[22] and the Respect Party^[23] all support the principle of a referendum.

Private Member's Bill

In May 2013, the Conservative Party published a draft EU Referendum Bill and outlined their plans for renegotiation and then an In-Out vote if returned to office in 2015.^[24] The draft Bill stated that the referendum must be held no later than 31 December 2017.^[25]

The draft legislation was initially taken forward as a Private Member's Bill by Conservative MP James Wharton.^[26] The Bill's First Reading in the House of Commons took place on 19 June 2013.^[27] David Cameron, was said by a spokesperson to be "very pleased" and would ensure the Bill was given "the full support of the Conservative Party".^[28]

Regarding the ability of the Bill to bind the UK Government in the 2015–20 Parliament to holding such a referendum, a parliamentary research paper noted that:

The Bill simply provides for a referendum on continued EU membership by the end of December 2017 and does not otherwise specify the timing, other than requiring the Secretary of State to bring forward orders by the end of 2016. These orders would need both Houses to agree to the detailed rules for the poll and the date. If no party obtained a majority at the [next general election due in 2015], there might be some uncertainty about the passage of the orders in the next Parliament. Unless the orders are passed, it would not appear possible to hold the referendum, since the day and the conduct of the poll would not have received parliamentary assent.^[29]

The Bill received its Second Reading on 5 July 2013 passing by 304 votes to none after almost all Labour MPs and all Liberal Democrat MPs abstained, finally clearing the Commons in November 2013, before it was introduced to the House of Lords in December 2013, where it failed to progress after the Lords voted to block the Bill.^[30]

Conservative MP Bob Neill introduced an Alternative Referendum Bill to the Commons having coming third in the annual ballot for Private Members' Bills on 2 July 2014.^[31][32] After a debate on 17 October 2014, it passed to the Public Bills Committee, but due to the Commons failing to pass a monetary resolution the Bill was unable to progress further before the Dissolution of Parliament on 27 March 2015.^[33][34]

Legislation & Referendum question

To enable to the referendum to take place legally across the United Kingdom and Gibraltar two pieces of legislation have been enacted. The first and main piece of legislation the European Union Referendum Act 2015 was passed by the UK Parliament and received Royal assent on 17 December 2015 and the second piece of legislation, the European Union (Referendum) Act 2016 was passed by the Gibraltar Parliament to allow the referendum to take place in Gibraltar and received Royal assent on January 28, 2016.

European Union Referendum Act 2015

Before the 2015 general election, the Conservatives pledged in their manifesto to legislate for an EU Referendum to be held by the end of 2017.^[15] Following the surprise election of a Conservative majority government on 7 May, Cameron reiterated that pledge, suggesting it might be brought forward to 2016.^[35][36] The UK Government included the planned referendum in The Queen's Speech on 27 May^[16] and introduced the European Union Referendum Bill 2015–16 in the House of Commons on the next day. On the bills second reading on 9 June MPs voted by 544 to 53 in favour of the principle of holding a referendum with only the Scottish National Party voting to oppose the Bill.^[37]

Shortly after his re-election, Cameron visited a number of EU leaders to discuss renegotiation and treaty change with a view to reaching agreement before the referendum.^[38]

In contrast to the Labour Party's position prior to the 2015 general election under Ed Miliband, acting Labour leader Harriet Harman committed her party to supporting plans for an EU referendum by 2017.^[39] The Liberal Democrats oppose a referendum before 2017, suggesting one should only take place in the event of further proposed changes to the Treaties of the European Union.^[40] In its 2015 election manifesto, the Democratic Unionist Party offered clear support for an EU referendum.^[41]

Referendum question

Research by the Electoral Commission confirmed that its recommended question "was clear and straightforward for voters, and was the most neutral wording from the range of options ... considered and tested" citing responses to its consultation by a diverse range including Thom Brooks and the Democratic Unionist Party.^[42] The proposed question was accepted by the government in September 2015, shortly before the bill's third reading.^[43] The referendum question that will appear on ballot papers under both pieces of legislation and after consultation by the Electoral Commission will be:^[43]

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?

with the responses to be marked with a single (x):

Remain a member of the European Union

Leave the European Union

Calling of referendum

Date controversy

Prior to being officially announced, it was widely speculated that a June date for the referendum was a serious possibility. As a result, all three First Ministers of the UK devolved nations co-signed a letter asking David Cameron not to hold the referendum in June due to the fact that devolved elections were scheduled to take place in May. This date itself was the result of postponing elections for a year to avoid a similar situation after Westminster had implemented the Fixed Term Parliament Act. The letter stated that "We believe that the European referendum is of vital importance to the future of the whole United Kingdom and the debate leading up to it should, therefore, be free of other campaigning distraction." Cameron refused this request saying "I think people are perfectly capable of making up their minds in a local election or in a Scottish parliamentary election, or in a Welsh assembly election and then, a period of some weeks afterwards, making up their mind all over again on the vital question of the European Union."^[44]

Official calling of referendum

On the morning of Saturday 20 February 2016, just hours after a deal was struck between the EU and the UK in a European Council summit in Brussels which concluded the UK's renegotiation of its EU membership, Prime Minister David Cameron held a special cabinet meeting in 10 Downing Street with his fellow Ministers (the first such meeting to be held on a Saturday since 3 April 1982 at the start of the Falklands War). After the meeting he announced outside the door of No 10 that the Government was to recommend to the British people that the United Kingdom should "remain" within the European Union and that the referendum would be held on Thursday 23 June 2016. This marked the official launch of the campaign. He also announced the Parliament would enact secondary legislation relating to the European Union Referendum Act 2015 on Monday 22 February 2016. With the official launch, ministers of the UK Government were then free to campaign on either side of the argument in a rare exception to Cabinet collective responsibility.^[45]

HM Government Pamphlet

HM Government distributed a leaflet to every household in England in the week commencing 11 April, and will be distributed in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland on 5 May (after devolved elections). It gave details on why the government's position is that the UK should remain in the EU and the rationale was based on internal polls that 85% of the population wanted more information from the government. It was criticised by those wanting to leave as being an unfair advantage, inaccurate and a waste of money (the total campaign including website cost £9.3 million).^[46]

Procedure

There is no precedent for a sovereign member state leaving the European Union or any of its predecessor organisations. However, three territories of EU member states have withdrawn: Algeria (1962, independence from France),^[47] Greenland (1985)^[48] and Saint Barthélemy (2012),^[49] the latter two becoming Overseas Countries and Territories of the European Union.

The Treaty of Lisbon, which came into force on 1 December 2009, introduced for the first time a procedure for a member state to withdraw voluntarily from the EU.^[50] This is specified in Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union,^[51] which states that a member state may notify the European Council that it wishes to withdraw, upon which withdrawal negotiations begin. If no other agreement is reached the treaty ceases to apply to the withdrawing state two years after such notification.

Remaining members of the EU consequently would need to undertake negotiations to manage change over the EU's budgets, voting allocations and policies brought about by the withdrawal of any member state.^[52]

Hypothesised results of a withdrawal

Were the UK electorate to vote to leave the EU, its subsequent relationship with the remaining EU members could take several forms. A research paper presented to the UK Parliament proposed a number of alternatives to membership which would continue to allow access with the EU internal market. These include remaining in the European Economic Area (EEA) as a European Free Trade Association (EFTA) member, or seeking to negotiate bilateral terms along the Swiss model with a series of interdependent sectoral agreements.^[53] Were the UK to join the European Economic Area as an EFTA member, it would have to sign up to EU internal market legislation without being able to vote on its content. However the EU is required to conduct extensive consultations with non-EU members beforehand via its many committees and cooperative bodies.^[54][55] It is also worth noting that some EU Law originates from various international bodies on which non-EU EEA countries have a seat. The EEA Agreement (EU and EFTA members except Switzerland) does not cover Common Agriculture and Fisheries Policies, Customs Union, Common Trade Policy, Common Foreign and Security Policy, direct and indirect Taxation, and Police and Judicial Co-operation in Criminal Matters, leaving EFTA members free to set their own policies in these areas;^[56] however, EFTA countries are required to contribute to the EU Budget in exchange for access to the internal market.^[57][58] The Icelandic Government decided to keep this status, withdrawing their application for EU membership in March 2015.^[59]

A report by Tim Oliver of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs expanded analysis of what a British withdrawal could mean for the EU: the report argues a UK withdrawal "has the potential to fundamentally change the EU and European integration. On the one hand, a withdrawal could tip the EU towards protectionism, exacerbate existing divisions, or unleash centrifugal forces leading to the EU’s unravelling. Alternatively, the EU could free itself of its most awkward member, making the EU easier to lead and more effective."^[52] Both The Financial Times^[60] and The Guardian^[61] publish regular comment on Euro finance and EU opinion.

Leading figures both supportive and not of Scottish Independence have suggested that in the event the UK as a whole votes to leave the EU but Scotland as a whole votes to remain in the EU, a second Scottish Independence referendum may be precipitated.^[62][63] Indeed, former Labour Scottish First Minister Henry McLeish has said that he would support Scottish Independence under such circumstances.^[64] It has also been pointed out that upon the UK's exit from the European Union, many of the powers and competencies of the EU institutions would be repatriated to Holyrood and not Westminster.^[65] Currently, Scotland exports three and a half times more to the rest of the UK than to the rest of the EU.^[66] Pro-union organisation Scotland in Union has suggested that an independent Scotland within the EU would face trade barriers with a post-Brexit UK and face additional costs for re-entry [to the EU].^[66]

Enda Kenny, the Taoiseach of Ireland, has warned that a UK exit of the European Union could damage the Northern Ireland peace process.^[67] The Republic of Ireland and the United Kingdom joined the European Union at the same time in 1973. Northern Ireland Secretary Theresa Villiers denounced the suggestion as "scaremongering of the worst possible kind".^[68] It has been suggested by a member of the German parliament's finance committee that a "bilateral solution" between the UK and Ireland could be negotiated quickly after a leave vote.^[69]

Regional President of Nord-Pas-de-Calais-Picardie Xavier Bertrand stated in February 2016 that "If Britain leaves Europe, right away the border will leave Calais and go to Dover. We will not continue to guard the border for Britain if it’s no longer in the European Union" indicating that the Juxtaposed controls would end with a leave vote. French Finance Minister Emmanuel Macron also suggested the agreement would be "threatened" by a leave vote^[70] These claims have been disputed, as the Le Touquet treaty enabling juxtaposed controls was not debated from within the EU, and would not be legally void upon leaving.^[71]

UK universities rely on the EU for around 16% of their total research funding, and are disproportionately successful at winning EU-awarded research grants. This has raised questions about how such funding would be affected by a British exit.^[72]

In 2015, Chief Minister of Gibraltar Fabian Picardo suggested that Gibraltar would attempt to remain part of the EU in the event the UK voted to leave,^[73] but reaffirmed that regardless of the result that the territory would remain British.^[74] A report from the Foreign Affairs Select Committee concluded that Gibraltar must be included in negotiations post-Brexit.^[75]

Responses

Formal political campaigns

As of October 2015, there is a cross-party, formal group campaigning for Britain to remain a member, called Britain Stronger in Europe, while there are two groups promoting exit which sought to be the official Leave campaign: Leave.EU (supported by most of UKIP, including Nigel Farage),^[76] and Vote Leave (supported by Conservative Party Eurosceptics).^[76][77] The Electoral Commission announced that Vote Leave as the official leave campaign on 13 April 2016. This gives it the right to spend up to £7m, a free mailshot, TV broadcasts and £600,000 in public funds.^[78] Leave.EU also has an umbrella group offshoot,^[76] the cross-party Grassroots Out.^[79]

The UK government's official position is to support the remain option. A Government-backed campaign was launched in April.^[80]

Party policies

The table lists only those political parties with elected representation in the Westminster, the devolved and the European parliaments.

Position	Political parties			Ref
Remain		Alliance Party		[81][82]
		Green Party	England and Wales	[83]
			Northern Ireland	[84]
			Scotland	[85]
		Labour Party		[86][87]
		Liberal Democrats		[88]
		NI21		[89]
		Plaid Cymru		[90]
		Scottish National Party (SNP)		[91][92]
		Sinn Féin		[93]
		Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP)		[94]
		Ulster Unionist Party (UUP)		[95]
Leave
		Democratic Unionist Party (DUP)		[96][97]
		Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV)		[98]
		UK Independence Party (UKIP)		[99]
Neutral		Conservative Party		[100]

Among minor parties, Britain First^[101] the British National Party (BNP),^[102] Respect Party,^[103] Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition (TUSC),^[104] SDP,^[105] and Independence from Europe^[106] support leaving the EU. The Scottish Socialist Party (SSP) support remaining in the EU^[107] and the Women's Equality Party (WE) is non-partisan on the issue.^[108][109]

All parties represented in the Gibraltar Parliament support Remain: the Gibraltar Social Democrats (GSD),^[110] the Gibraltar Socialist Labour Party (GSLP),^[111] and the Liberal Party of Gibraltar.^[111]

No party has decreed that its members should all follow the party line, resulting in notable public differences of view: Conservative Party MPs in particular, and Labour MPs to a lesser extent, are taking different sides. Most parties have splits in its members and supporters, with Labour,^[112] Conservative^[113] Liberal Democrat^[114] and UKIP^[115] supporters all taking different sides.

Cabinet Ministers' positions

For the positions of backbench MPs and other politicians, see Endorsements in the United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, 2016

The Cabinet of the United Kingdom is a body responsible for making decisions on policy and organising governmental departments; it is chaired by the Prime Minister and contains most of the government's ministerial heads.^[116] Following the announcement of the referendum in February, 23 of the 30 Cabinet ministers (including attendees) supported the UK staying in the EU.^[117] Iain Duncan Smith, in favour of leaving, resigned on 19 March and was replaced by Stephen Crabb who is in favour of remaining.^[117][118]

Business opinion

Various UK multinationals have stated that they are pro-EU so as to preserve the status quo, such as Shell,^[119] BT^[120] and Vodafone,^[121] with some assessing the pros-and-cons of Britain exiting.^[122] The banking sector is one of the most vocal advocating to stay in the EU, with the British Bankers Association saying: 'Businesses don't like that kind of uncertainty'.^[123] RBS has warned of potential damage to the economy.^[124] Furthermore, HSBC and foreign-based banks JP Morgan and Deutsche Bank envisage that a Brexit might result in them changing domicile.^[125][126] According to Goldman Sachs and the Daily Telegraph, all such factors could impact on the City of London's present status as a European and global market leader in financial services.^[127][128]

In the transportation industry, most companies so far have declared as being pro-EU, such as foreign-based car manufacturers Ford and BMW who have warned Prime Minister David Cameron against Brexit, suggesting it would be "devastating" for the economy.^[129] Conversely, some other manufacturing executives have stated that 'British plants were not at risk were the country to leave'.^[130] The CEO of Vauxhall has stated that a Brexit would not materially affect its business.^[131] Foreign-based Toyota CEO Akio Toyoda confirmed that whether or not Britain left the EU, Toyota would carry on manufacturing cars in Britain as they had done before.^[132]

A February–March 2013 survey of 4,387 companies by the business lobby group British Chambers of Commerce found that 18 per cent of UK companies were in favour of complete withdrawal from the European Union,^[133] and that 33 per cent of businesses were in favour of withdrawal while negotiating free trade deals, although 60 per cent suspected a withdrawal could "harm their business",^[133] with 23 per cent saying that further integration could be "beneficial" to their company.^[133] In September 2013, a YouGov/Business for Britain survey of 1024 UK business leaders found that by 46% – 37%, British businesses declared that the costs of Single Market membership out weigh the benefits of being in the EU, by 66% – 26%, businesses support a referendum over the EU, and by 56% – 23%, business leaders believe a meaningful change would necessitate treaty change, and would like to see Britain's relationship with the EU focus on trade.^[134]

Former Bundesbank of Germany President Axel Weber said that leaving the EU would not deal a major blow to London's status as one of the top financial hubs, saying that central banks have had the biggest effect on the financial markets.^[135]

In June 2015, the credit rating agency foreign-based Standard & Poors altered its outlook for the UK economy from 'neutral' to 'negative', saying that the referendum "represents a risk to growth prospects" for the country's economy.^[136] (As of June 2015, S&P is now the sole rating agency giving the UK AAA-rating.^[136])

In February 2016, half the companies on the FTSE 100 Index, "including Shell, BAE Systems, BT and Rio Tinto" as well as supermarket chains Asda and Marks and Spencer,^[137] officially supported staying in the EU.^[138] Moreover, 60% of the Institute of Directors and the EEF memberships supported staying in the EU.^[139]

Former executive chairman of Marks & Spencer Stuart Rose said that wages amongst the lowest paid in UK would increase if UK left the EU only if the number of EU migrants to UK decreased. He later released a statement saying "Wage rates depend on a large range of factors, including the supply of Labour and overall strength of the economy. Our economy is stronger in Europe".^[140]

European responses

Czech prime minister Bohuslav Sobotka suggested that the Czech Republic would start discussion about leaving the EU if UK voted for an EU exit.^[141]

Former Czech President Václav Klaus said that British PM Cameron “only plays he's Eurosceptic in front of Britons and his party members” and noted he does not believe in Britain's departure from EU but If that happened, it would be bigger non-event than dissolution of Czechoslovakia was.^[142]

Non-European responses

United States

In October 2015, United States Trade Representative Michael Froman declared that the United States is not keen on pursuing a separate free trade agreement (FTA) with Britain if it leaves the European Union, thus undermining, according to The Guardian a key economic argument of proponents of those who say Britain would prosper on its own and be able to secure bilateral FTAs with trading partners.^[143] Also in October 2015, the United States Ambassador to the United Kingdom Matthew Barzun said that UK participation in NATO and the EU made each group "better and stronger" and that, while the decision to remain or leave is a choice for the British people, it is in the US interest that it remain. Barzun said: "We would love a strong UK in a strong EU."^[144]

In an interview with BBC News in July 2015, President Barack Obama confirmed the longstanding US preference for the UK to remain in the EU. Obama said: "Having the UK in the EU gives us much greater confidence about the strength of the transatlantic union, and is part of the cornerstone of the institutions built after [the second world war] that has made the world safer and more prosperous. We want to make sure that the United Kingdom continues to have that influence."^[145] His intervention was criticised by Republican presidential candidate Ted Cruz as "a slap in the face of British self-determination as the president, typically, elevated an international organisation over the rights of a sovereign people", and claimed that "Britain will be at the front of the line for a free trade deal with America", were a Brexit to occur.^[146][147] In February 2016, the New York Times published an editorial entitled "Everyone Loses if Britain Exits the E.U." The editorial board opined that British withdrawal "would be a tragedy for Britain, other European nations, and for a world that needs a united and prosperous Europe."^[148] In April 2016, eight former U.S. Secretaries of the Treasury, who served both Democratic and Republican presidents, urged Britain to remain in the EU.^[149]

International Monetary Fund

In February 2016, Christine Lagarde, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, warned that the uncertainty over the outcome of the referendum would be bad "in and of itself" for the British economy.^[150] She added that leaving the EU was "bound to be negative on all fronts".^[151]

G20

In February 2016, the finance ministers from the G-20 major economies warned that leaving the EU would lead to "a shock" in the global economy.^{[152][153][154]}

Exit plan competition

Following David Cameron's announcement of an EU referendum, British think tank the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) announced in July 2013 a competition to find the best plan for a UK exit from the European Union, declaring that a departure is a "real possibility" after the 2015 general election.^[155] Iain Mansfield, a Cambridge graduate and UKTI diplomat, submitted the winning thesis: A Blueprint for Britain: Openness not Isolation.^[156] Mansfield's submission focused on addressing both trade and regulatory issues with member states as well as other global trading partners.^[157][158]

Economists' opinions

In November 2015, Governor of Bank of England Mark Carney said that the Bank of England would do what is necessary to help UK economy if the British people vote to leave the EU.^[159]

In the week following conclusion of the negotiation (and especially after Boris Johnson declared for 'leave'), the pound fell to a seven-year low against the dollar and economists at HSBC 'warned that the pound could drop at a “fast and furious” pace if the UK voted to leave the EU' ... and 'hammer households'.^[160] At the same time, Daragh Maher, head of HSBC Holdings Plc, Europe’s biggest bank suggested that if Sterling dropped in value so would the Euro. He said "If we have increased Brexit risk, we will have a negative risk for the euro.” European banking analysts also cited “Brexit” concerns as the reason for the Euro's decline.^[161] However, John Redwood MP, Co-Chairman of the Conservative Party's Policy Review Group on Economic Competitiveness wrote that there were numerous reasons why sterling was fluctuating and that sterling had reached the same numbers over the last few years, none of which were ascribed to fears about the UK leaving the European Union. He stated that weakness of the Chinese yuan, the dollar rise, as well as the strength of the yen, all had parts to play in sterling's movement.^[162]

On 8 March 2016, Carney told MPs that EU exit is the 'biggest domestic risk' to the UK economy, but that remaining a member also carried risks, related to the European Monetary Union, which the UK is not a member of.^[163]

Opinion polling

Opinion polling on the referendum

Since 2010, polls have indicated that the British public are divided on the question, with opposition to EU membership peaking in November 2012 at 56% compared with 30% who prefer to remain in,^[164] while in June 2015 those in favour of Britain remaining in the EU reached 43% versus those opposed 36%.^[165] The largest ever poll (of 20,000 people, in March 2014) showed the public evenly split on the issue, with 41% in favour of withdrawal, 41% in favour of membership, and 18% undecided.^[166] However, when asked how they would vote if Britain renegotiated the terms of its membership of the EU, and the UK Government stated that British interests had been satisfactorily protected, more than 50% indicated that they would vote for Britain to stay in.^[167]

Analysis of polling suggests that young voters tend to support remaining in the EU, whereas those older tend to support leaving, but there is no gender split in attitudes.^[168][169] YouGov have also found that euroscepticism correlates with people of lower income and support for the Conservatives.^[170] Scotland, Wales and many English urban areas with large student populations are more europhile.^[170] Big business is broadly behind remaining in the EU, though the situation among smaller companies is less clear cut.^[171]

Issues

The number of jobs lost or gained by a withdrawal is likely to be a dominant issue; the BBC's outline of issues warns that a precise figure is difficult to find. The leave campaign argue that a reduction in red tape associated with EU regulations would create more jobs and that small to medium-sized companies who trade domestically would be the biggest beneficiaries. Those arguing to remain in the EU, claim that millions of jobs would be lost. The EU's importance as a trading partner and the outcome of its trade status if it left is a disputed issue. While those wanting to stay cite that most of the UK's trade is made with the EU, those arguing to leave say that its trade is not as important as it used to be. Scenarios of the economic outlook for the country if it left the EU are generally negative. The United Kingdom also pays more into the EU budget than it receives.^[172]

Citizens of EU countries, including the United Kingdom, have the right to travel, live and work within other EU countries, as free movement is one of the four founding principles of the EU.^[173] Campaigners for remaining say that EU immigration has had positive impacts on the UK's economy, citing that the country's growth forecasts are partly based upon continued high levels of net immigration.^[172] The Office for Budget Responsibility also claim that taxes from immigrants boost public funding.^[172] The leave campaign believe reduced immigration would ease pressure in public services such as schools and hospitals, as well as giving British workers more jobs and higher wages.^[172]

The possibility that the UK's smaller constituent countries could vote to remain within the EU but find themselves withdrawn from the EU has led to discussion about the risk to the unity of the United Kingdom.^[174] Scotland's First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, has made clear that she believes that a second independence referendum will "almost certainly" be demanded by Scots if the UK votes to leave the EU but Scotland does not.^[175] The First Minister of Wales, Carwyn Jones, has said: "If Wales votes to remain in [the EU] but the UK votes to leave, there will be a... constitutional crisis. The UK cannot possibly continue in its present form if England votes to leave and everyone else votes to stay."^[176]

There was debate over the extent to which the European Union membership aids security and defence in comparison to the UK's membership to NATO and the United Nations.^[177] Security concerns over the union's free movement policy were raised too, because people with EU passports are unlikely to receive detailed checks at border control.^[178]

Debates

A debate was held by The Guardian, on 15 March 2016 featuring the leader of UKIP Nigel Farage, Conservative MP Andrea Leadsom, the leader of Labour's "yes" campaign Alan Johnson and former leader of the Liberal Democrats Nick Clegg.^[179]

Earlier in the campaign, on January 11, a debate took place between Nigel Farage and Carwyn Jones, who was at the time the First Minister of Wales and leader of the Welsh Labour Party.^[180][181]

The BBC will host three special referendum debates in the run-up to the vote on 23 June.^[182] These will be:

• The Victoria Derbyshire Debate, Glasgow, BBC Two, 19 May
• Question Time, BBC One, 15 June
• Wembley Debate, BBC One, 21 June

Voting areas and counts

Manchester Central Convention Complex will be the venue where the result of the referendum will be declared by the Chief Counting Officer for the whole of the United Kingdom and Gibraltar.

The twelve areas of the United Kingdom to be used in aggregating local voting results.

The referendum will be held across all four countries of the United Kingdom, as well as in the Overseas Territory of Gibraltar, as a single majority vote. There are to be 382 local voting areas which are grouped into twelve regional counts and there will be separate declarations for each of the regional counts. For the second time in a UK-wide referendum, as chairperson of the Electoral Commission, the Chief Counting Officer (CCO) will be Jenny Watson, who will announce the final result of the referendum (combining all 12 regional counts from across the UK and Gibraltar) in Manchester on Friday, 24 June 2016.^[183]

In England, as happened in the 2011 AV referendum, the 326 districts will be used as the local voting areas and the returns of these will then feed into nine English regional counts. In Scotland the local voting areas will be the 32 local councils which will then feed their results into the Scottish national count, and in Wales the 22 local councils will be their local voting areas before the results are then fed into the Welsh national count. Northern Ireland will, as was the case in the AV referendum, be a single voting and national count area. Gibraltar will be a single voting area and its result will be fed into the South West England regional count.^[183]

The following table shows the breakdown of the voting areas and regional counts that will be used for the referendum.^[183]

Country	Counts and voting areas
United Kingdom	Referendum declaration; 12 regional counts; 382 local voting areas

Constituent countries	Counts and voting areas
England	9 regional counts; 326 local voting areas
Northern Ireland	Single voting area and national count
Scotland	National count; 32 local voting areas
Wales	National count; 22 local voting areas

British Overseas Territory	Voting area
Gibraltar	Single voting area (regional count: South West England)

The European Union Referendum Act 2015 dictates, that only British, Irish and Commonwealth citizens over 18 who are resident in the UK or Gibraltar will be able to vote in the Referendum.^[184] British citizens who have lived abroad for less than 15 years will also be eligible to vote.^[184]

There has been protest by some residents of the Isle of Man, and the other Crown dependencies Jersey and Guernsey, that they should have the opportunity to vote in the referendum, as (although not part of the EU, unlike Gibraltar) EU membership also affects them.^[185]

See also

Outline of the European Union Budget of the European Union UK rebate European Parliament elections, 2014 Enlargement of the European Union European Civil Service Freedom of movement for workers in the European Union Secession Sovereignty

European unity / identity: Economy of Europe Pro-Europeanism Pan-European identity Ideas of European unity before 1945 Euro European migrant crisis Eurosphere Greek withdrawal from the eurozone Euroscepticism

Members of the European Union

Notes

1. The terms Brexit and Brixit were apparently first coined in June 2012; Brixit was first used by a columnist in The Economist, while Brexit was first used by a British nationalist group. The terms were probably inspired by the word Grexit, shorthand for Greek withdrawal from the eurozone. The term Brexit first became a widely used buzzword in 2013.^[5]

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Further reading

• George, Stephen (January 2000). "Britain: anatomy of a Eurosceptic state". Journal of European Integration (Taylor and Francis) 22 (1): 15–33. doi:10.1080/07036330008429077.
• Usherwood, Simon (March 2007). "Proximate factors in the mobilization of anti‐EU groups in France and the UK: the European Union as first‐order politics". Journal of European Integration (Taylor and Francis) 29 (1): 3–21. doi:10.1080/07036330601144177.
• Emerson, Michael (April 2016). "The Economics of a Brexit". Intereconomics (Springer Science+Business Media) 51 (2): 46–47. doi:10.1007/s10272-016-0574-2.

External links

• www.electoralcommission.org.uk
• www.openeurope.org.uk
• www.reformineurope.org