United States presidential election in Oregon, 2004

United States presidential election in Oregon, 2004
Oregon
November 2, 2004
 
Nominee John Kerry George W. Bush
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Massachusetts Texas
Running mate John Edwards Dick Cheney
Electoral vote 7 0
Popular vote 943,163 866,831
Percentage 51.35% 47.19%

County Results
  Kerry—70-80%
  Kerry—50-60%
  Bush—50-60%
  Bush—60-70%
  Bush—70-80%
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

 Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Oregon took place on November 2, 2004 throughout all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose seven representatives, or electors, to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

Oregon was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by a 4.2% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Kerry would win, or otherwise considered as a blue state. A moderate amount of campaigning took place here, as Kerry won every poll after October 14, and each with between 47% to 53% of the vote. Despite the state having been very competitive in 2000, Oregon is a consistent blue state that a Republican has not won in a presidential election since 1984. Kerry won this state with a larger margin, indicating Oregon's Democratic trend.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[1]

  1. D.C. Political Report: Slight Democratic
  2. Associated Press: Toss Up
  3. CNN: Kerry
  4. Cook Political Report: Lean Democratic
  5. Newsweek: Lean Kerry
  6. New York Times: Lean Kerry
  7. Rasmussen Reports: Kerry
  8. Research 2000: Solid Kerry
  9. Washington Post: Toss Up
  10. Washington Times: Battleground
  11. Zogby International: Kerry
  12. Washington Dispatch: Kerry

Polling

Kerry won most pre-election polling. The final 3 poll average had Kerry leading 50% to 45%.[2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $1,497,451.[3] Kerry raised $1,937,916.[4]

Advertising and visits

In the week of September 28, both tickets combined spent an estimated $546,000 on advertising. However, both tickets spent less and less money each week.[5] Bush visited here 2 times. Kerry visited here 3 times. Both tickets visited the western part of the state.[6]

Analysis

After the 2000 election, which saw a really close race, Oregon was largely considered a potential Republican target, however Democratic Presidential candidate John Kerry won 51% of Oregon's vote, narrowly defeating Republican incumbent George W. Bush. Most rural counties favored Bush, but Kerry's strong support in the more urban Willamette Valley allowed him to win the state. About 68% of the voting age population came out to vote.

Results

United States presidential election in Oregon, 2004
Party Candidate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic John Kerry 943,163 51.35% 7
Republican George W. Bush 866,831 47.19% 0
Write Ins 8,956 0.49% 0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik 7,260 0.40% 0
Green David Cobb 5,315 0.29% 0
Constitution Michael Peroutka 5,257 0.29% 0
Totals 1,836,782 100.00% 7
Voter turnout (Voting age population) 67.8%

Results breakdown

By county

County Bush# Bush% Kerry# Kerry% Others# Others%
Baker 6,253 69.2 2,616 29.0 165 1.8
Benton 18,460 40.4 26,514 58.0 760 1.7
Clackamas 97,961 50.1 95,129 48.8 2,180 1.1
Clatsop 8,503 44.0 10,461 54.2 345 1.8
Columbia 11,868 47.6 12,563 50.4 486 2.0
Coos 18,291 54.8 14,393 43.1 678 2.0
Crook 6,830 68.0 3,024 30.1 197 2.0
Curry 7,332 57.3 5,220 40.8 247 1.9
Deschutes 41,757 56.4 31,179 42.1 1,112 1.5
Douglas 35,956 65.4 18,089 32.9 939 1.7
Gilliam 755 66.3 370 32.5 13 1.1
Grant 3,204 78.9 780 19.2 77 1.9
Harney 2,815 76.0 839 22.7 48 1.3
Hood River 4,124 41.8 5,587 56.7 148 1.5
Jackson 56,519 55.3 44,366 43.4 1,304 1.3
Jefferson 4,762 58.7 3,243 40.0 110 1.4
Josephine 26,241 62.1 15,124 36.0 820 1.9
Klamath 22,733 72.1 8,264 26.2 518 1.6
Lake 3,039 77.8 802 20.5 64 1.6
Lane 75,007 40.4 107,769 58.0 3,096 1.7
Lincoln 10,160 41.8 13,753 56.5 412 1.7
Linn 31,260 60.1 19,940 38.3 841 1.6
Malheur 8,123 74.9 2,577 23.8 146 1.3
Marion 69,900 53.9 57,671 44.5 2,048 1.6
Morrow 2,732 65.8 1,361 32.8 56 1.3
Multnomah 98,439 27.1 259,585 71.6 4,670 1.3
Polk 19,508 55.0 15,484 43.6 497 1.4
Sherman 694 62.9 390 35.3 20 1.8
Tillamook 7,003 50.2 6,750 48.4 198 1.4
Umatilla 17,068 64.8 8,884 33.8 370 1.4
Union 8,879 65.7 4,428 32.8 212 1.6
Wallowa 3,132 69.3 1,269 28.1 120 2.7
Wasco 6,119 51.0 5,691 47.4 192 1.6
Washington 107,223 46.4 121,140 52.4 2,945 1.3
Wheeler 612 69.5 245 27.8 23 2.6
Yamhill 23,839 56.6 17,572 41.7 731 1.7

By congressional district

Kerry won 3 of 5 congressional districts.[7]

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st 44% 55% David Wu
2nd 61% 38% Greg Walden
3rd 33% 67% Earl Blumenauer
4th 49% 49% Peter DeFazio
5th 50% 49% Darlene Hooley

Electors

Technically the voters of Oregon cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Oregon is allocated 7 electors because it has 5 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 7 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 7 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 7 were pledged for Kerry/Edwards.

  1. Michael J. Bohan
  2. Shirley A. Cairns
  3. James L. Edmunson
  4. Moshe D. Lenske
  5. Meredith Wood Smith
  6. Judy A. Sugnet
  7. Paul F. Zastrow

References

  1. ↑ http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW
  2. ↑ http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=41
  3. ↑ http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/george_w_bush.asp?cycle=04
  4. ↑ http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/john_f_kerry.asp?cycle=04
  5. ↑ http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/campaign.ads/
  6. ↑ http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/showdown/OR/
  7. ↑ http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/
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