Asturian parliamentary election, 2012

Asturian parliamentary election, 2012

25 March 2012

All 45 seats in the Asturian General Junta 23 seats needed for a majority Opinion polls Registered 989,993 0.3% Turnout 506,368 (51.1%) 10.6 pp   First party Second party Third party   Leader Javier Fernández Francisco Álvarez Cascos Mercedes Fernández Party PSOE FAC PP Leader since 23 October 2010 18 January 2011 14 February 2012 Last election 15 seats, 29.9% 16 seats, 29.7% 10 seats, 20.0% Seats won 17 12 10 Seat change 2 4 ±0 Popular vote 161,159 124,518 108,091 Percentage 32.1% 24.8% 21.5% Swing 2.2 pp 4.9 pp 1.5 pp   Fourth party Fifth party   Leader Jesús Iglesias Ignacio Prendes Party IU-IX UPyD Leader since 2007 2 November 2010 Last election 4 seats, 10.3% 0 seats, 2.4% Seats won 5 1 Seat change 1 1 Popular vote 69,118 18,801 Percentage 13.8% 3.7% Swing 3.5 pp 1.3 pp

President before election Francisco Álvarez Cascos FAC Elected President Javier Fernández PSOE

The 2012 Asturian parliamentary election was held on Sunday, 25 March 2012, to elect the 9th General Junta of the Principality of Asturias, the regional legislature of the Spanish autonomous community of Asturias. At stake were all 45 seats in the General Junta, determining the President of the Principality of Asturias.

The Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) under Javier Fernández, which had scored first in votes but second in seats in the 2011 election, went on to win the election with a comfortable 7 point and 5 seat-margin. Asturias Forum (FAC) of regional President Francisco Álvarez Cascos, on the other hand, lost the plurality of seats it had won in the previous election and fell from 16 to 12 seats (it scored 13 on election night, but the counting of the vote of those abroad robbed it of 1 seat in the Eastern District, awarding it to PSOE). The People's Party (PP) was unable to improve its 2011 results despite a change of leadership and remained stagnant at 10 seats, while United Left (IU-IX) did win a seat from the 4 it already held.

The election resulted in a draw between the center-left (PSOE-IU) and center-right (FAC-PP) blocs, with Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD), which unlike 2011 this time was able to enter parliament, being determinant to attain an absolute majority of seats by either bloc. After some negotiations, UPyD agreed to support Javier Fernández as new President of Asturias.

Electoral system

The 45 members of the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias were elected in 3 multi-member districts using the D'Hondt method and a closed-list proportional representation system. Unlike other regions, districts did not coincide with provincial limits, being determined by law as such:

• Central District, comprising the municipalities of: Aller, Avilés, Bimenes, Carreño, Caso, Castrillón, Corvera de Asturias, Gijón, Gozón, Illas, Las Regueras, Langreo, Laviana, Lena, Llanera, Mieres, Morcín, Noreña, Oviedo, Proaza, Quirós, Ribera de Arriba, Riosa, San Martín del Rey Aurelio, Santo Adriano, Sariego, Siero, Sobrescobio and Soto del Barco.
• Eastern District, comprising the municipalities of: Amieva, Cabrales, Cabranes, Cangas de Onís, Caravia, Colunga, Llanes, Nava, Onís, Parres, Peñamellera Alta, Peñamellera Baja, Piloña, Ponga, Ribadedeva, Ribadesella and Villaviciosa.
• Western District, comprising the municipalities of: Allande, Belmonte de Miranda, Boal, Candamo, Cangas del Narcea, Castropol, Coaña, Cudillero, Degaña, El Franco, Grado, Grandas de Salime, Ibias, Illano, Muros del Nalón, Navia, Pesoz, Pravia, Salas, San Martín de Oscos, Santa Eulalia de Oscos, San Tirso de Abres, Somiedo, Tapia de Casariego, Taramundi, Teverga, Tineo, Valdés, Vegadeo, Villanueva de Oscos, Villayón and Yernes y Tameza.

Each district was entitled to an initial minimum of 2 seats, with the remaining 39 seats allocated among the three districts in proportion to their populations. For the 2012 election, seats were distributed as follows: Central District (34), Eastern District (5) and Western District (6).

Voting was on the basis of universal suffrage in a secret ballot. Only lists polling above 3% of the total vote in each district (which include blank ballots—for none of the above) were entitled to enter the seat distribution.^[1]

Opinion polls

Vote

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. However, if such date is unknown, the date of publication will be given instead.

Date	Polling Firm/Source	PSOE	FAC	PP	IU-IX	UPyD	Oth.	Lead
25 Mar 2012	Regional Election	32.1	24.8	21.5	13.8	3.7	4.1	7.3
Exit polls
19 Mar	Celeste-Tel[lower-alpha 1]	31.5	21.7	22.4	12.3	4.1	8.0	9.1
18 Mar	Ipsos-Eco	29.5	22.5	22.6	13.0	3.8	8.6	6.9
15–16 Mar	GAD3	33.3	21.0	25.8	10.1	3.8	6.0	7.5
12–15 Mar	Sigma-2	27.7	27.1	22.2	14.8	3.2	5.0	0.6
9 Mar	Opinión 2000	35.1	20.9	24.3	12.4	2.6	4.7	10.8
15–28 Feb	CIS	28.2	22.7	24.0	14.5	4.4	6.2	4.2
15–28 Feb	NC-Report[lower-alpha 1]	31.7	23.8	22.7			21.8	7.9
2012
20 Nov 2011	General Election	29.3	14.7	35.4	13.2	3.9	3.4	6.1
22 May 2011	Regional Election	29.9	29.7	20.0	10.3	2.4	7.7	0.2

Seat projections

Opinion polls showing seat projections are displayed in the table below. The highest seat figures in each polling survey have their background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. 23 seats were required for an absolute majority in the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias.

23 seats needed for majority

Date	Polling Firm/Source	PSOE	FAC	PP	IU-IX	UPyD	Others
25 Mar 2012	Regional Election	17	12	10	5	1	0
Exit polls
19 Mar	Celeste-Tel	14−17	10−12	11−13	4−7	1−2	0
19 Mar	NC-Report	15−16	11−12	12−13	5−6	1−2	0
18 Mar	Ipsos-Eco	15	11−12	11−12	6	1	0
15–16 Mar	GAD3	15−16	10−11	12−13	4−5	1	0
12–15 Mar	Sigma-2	13−14	13−14	10−11	6−7	1	0
9 Mar	Opinión 2000	17−18	10−11	12	5	0	0
6 Mar	PP	17−18	9−10	12−14	4−5	0−1	0
15–28 Feb	CIS	14	10−11	11−12	7	2	0
15–28 Feb	NC-Report	16	12	12	4	1	0
16–21 Feb	Low-Cost	15	10	15	4	1	0
2012
22 May 2011	Regional Election	15	16	10	4	0	0

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 25 March 2012 Asturian General Junta election results →

Party		Vote			Seats
		Votes	%	±pp	Won	+/−
	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)	161,159	32.10	2.18	17	2
	Asturias Forum (FAC)	124,518	24.80	4.86	12	4
	People's Party (PP)	108,091	21.53	1.58	10	±0
	United Left of Asturias (IU-IX)	69,118	13.77	3.49	5	1
	Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD)	18,801	3.74	1.30	1	1
	Blank Seats (Eb)	4,107	0.82	New	0	±0
	Equo-The Greens of Asturias (EQUO-LV)	2,558	0.51	New	0	±0
	Commitment for Asturias (BA-UNA-LV-GV)	1,656	0.33	1.30	0	±0
	Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA)	1,449	0.29	0.03	0	±0
	Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE)	782	0.16	0.08	0	±0
	Independents of Asturias-Jaded.org (IDEAS-Hartos.org)	738	0.15	0.91	0	±0
	Andecha Astur (AA)	674	0.13	New	0	±0

Parties with less than 0.1% of the vote		1,256	0.25	–	0	±0
	Asturian Renewal Union (URAS)	454	0.09	0.40	0	±0
	Constitutional and Democratic Party (PDyC)	237	0.05	0.12	0	±0
	Republican Social Movement (MSR)	183	0.04	±0.00	0	±0
	Internationalist Solidarity and Self-Management (SAIn)	178	0.04	New	0	±0
	Communist Unification of Spain (UCE)	100	0.02	0.02	0	±0
	Auseva Red (Auseva Red)	55	0.01	New	0	±0
	Humanist Party (PH)	28	0.01	New	0	±0
	Land Party (PT)	16	0.00	New	0	±0
	Family and Life Party (PFyV)	5	0.00	New	0	±0

	Blank ballots	7,166	1.43	1.17
Total		502,073	100.00		45	±0
Valid votes		502,073	99.15	0.59
Invalid votes		4,295	0.85	0.59
Votes cast / turnout		506,368	51.15	10.54
Abstentions		483,625	48.85	10.54
Registered voters		989,993
Source(s): General Junta of the Principality of Asturias Argos Information Portal

Vote share
PSOE			32.10%
FAC			24.80%
PP			21.53%
IU-IX			13.77%
UPyD			3.74%
Others			2.63%
Blank ballots			1.43%

Parliamentary seats
PSOE			37.78%
FAC			26.67%
PP			22.22%
IU-IX			11.11%
UPyD			2.22%

Results by district

Election results by district.

Post-election

After the election, the leader of the Asturian PSOE, Javier Fernández, and incumbent Asturian President, Francisco Álvarez Cascos, were tasked to form a coalition government. The election led to a political impasse as the center-left (PSOE and IU-IX) and center-right coalitions (FAC and PP) each gained 22 seats in the election (23 seats are required for a majority in the 45-seat Assembly). The remaining seat was held by the centrist UPyD, which became the kingmaker in the negotiation.

Coalition talks took almost two months to reach an agreement. One of the main events during the negotiation was the legal battle in the Spanish Constitutional Court over the 45th seat, the assignment of which was delayed by the counting of the ballots of those voting abroad. FAC disputed the seat's assignment to the PSOE and asked for a revote; however, the Constitutional Court rejected the appeal and upheld the seat for the PSOE.^[2]

UPyD finally agreed to support a PSOE government, their main reason to do so being the threat by Finance Minister Cristóbal Montoro to intervene in Asturian government accounts.^[3] On 23 May 2012, PSOE leader Javier Fernández was elected as the new President of the Principality of Asturias with support from IU and UPyD.^[4]

Notes

1. Poll results are shown projected over candidacy votes (that is, votes going for political parties, excluding blank ballots). The vote percentage in the official election is calculated including blank ballots into the estimation. In order to obtain data comparable to both the official results as well as those of other polls, a rule of three has been applied to the poll projections, with the results of the calculation being shown instead.

References

1. "Law 14/1986, of 26 December, on the regulation of elections to the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias".
2. "One month and 21 days of thrill" (in Spanish). El País. 2012-05-16.
3. "The PSOE will govern in Asturias after reaching an agreement with UPyD" (in Spanish). El País. 2012-05-16.
4. "Javier Fernández, President of Asturias with the support of IU and UPyD" (in Spanish). El País. 2012-05-23.

External links

• 2012 election results