United States presidential election, 2004

United States presidential election, 2004
United States
November 2, 2004
All 538 electoral votes of the Electoral College
270 electoral votes needed to win
Turnout 56.7%[1]
 
Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Texas Massachusetts
Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards
Electoral vote 286[2] 251[2][3]
States carried 31 19 + DC
Popular vote 62,040,610 59,028,444
Percentage 50.7% 48.3%
United States presidential election in Alabama, 2004 United States presidential election in Alaska, 2004 United States presidential election in Arizona, 2004 United States presidential election in Arkansas, 2004 United States presidential election in California, 2004 United States presidential election in Colorado, 2004 United States presidential election in Connecticut, 2004 United States presidential election in Delaware, 2004 United States presidential election in Florida, 2004 United States presidential election in Georgia, 2004 United States presidential election in Hawaii, 2004 United States presidential election in Idaho, 2004 United States presidential election in Illinois, 2004 United States presidential election in Indiana, 2004 United States presidential election in Iowa, 2004 United States presidential election in Kansas, 2004 United States presidential election in Kentucky, 2004 United States presidential election in Louisiana, 2004 United States presidential election in Maine, 2004 United States presidential election in Maryland, 2004 United States presidential election in Massachusetts, 2004 United States presidential election in Michigan, 2004 United States presidential election in Minnesota, 2004 United States presidential election in Mississippi, 2004 United States presidential election in Missouri, 2004 United States presidential election in Montana, 2004 United States presidential election in Nebraska, 2004 United States presidential election in Nevada, 2004 United States presidential election in New Hampshire, 2004 United States presidential election in New Jersey, 2004 United States presidential election in New Mexico, 2004 United States presidential election in New York, 2004 United States presidential election in North Carolina, 2004 United States presidential election in North Dakota, 2004 United States presidential election in Ohio, 2004 United States presidential election in Oklahoma, 2004 United States presidential election in Oregon, 2004 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania, 2004 United States presidential election in Rhode Island, 2004 United States presidential election in South Carolina, 2004 United States presidential election in South Dakota, 2004 United States presidential election in Tennessee, 2004 United States presidential election in Texas, 2004 United States presidential election in Utah, 2004 United States presidential election in Vermont, 2004 United States presidential election in Virginia, 2004 United States presidential election in Washington, 2004 United States presidential election in West Virginia, 2004 United States presidential election in Wisconsin, 2004 United States presidential election in Wyoming, 2004 United States presidential election in Delaware, 2004 United States presidential election in Maryland, 2004 United States presidential election in New Hampshire, 2004 United States presidential election in New Jersey, 2004 United States presidential election in Massachusetts, 2004 United States presidential election in Connecticut, 2004 United States presidential election in West Virginia, 2004 United States presidential election in Vermont, 2004 United States presidential election in Rhode Island, 2004ElectoralCollege2004.svg
Presidential election results map. Red denotes states won by Bush/Cheney, Blue denotes those won by Kerry/Edwards. The split vote in Minnesota denotes a faithless elector's vote counted for John Edwards. Each number represents the electoral votes a state gave to one candidate.
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

 Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The United States presidential election of 2004 was the 55th quadrennial presidential election. It was held on Tuesday, November 2, 2004. Republican Party candidate and incumbent President George W. Bush defeated Democratic Party candidate John Kerry, Senator from Massachusetts.

Bush and incumbent Vice President Dick Cheney were renominated by their party with no difficulty. Howard Dean was initially the frontrunner for the Democratic Party's nomination, but Kerry won nearly all of the primaries and caucuses. Kerry chose Senator John Edwards of North Carolina, who had himself sought that party's 2004 presidential nomination, to be his running mate.

Foreign policy was the dominant theme throughout the election campaign, particularly Bush's conduct of the War on Terrorism and the aftermath of the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Domestic issues were debated as well, including the economy and jobs, health care, and moral values.

Bush's margin of victory in the popular vote was the smallest ever for a reelected incumbent president, but marked the first time since his father's victory 16 years prior that a candidate won a majority of the popular vote. The electoral map closely resembled that of 2000, with only three states changing sides: New Mexico and Iowa voted Republican in 2004 after having voted Democratic in 2000, while New Hampshire voted Democratic in 2004 after previously voting Republican. In the Electoral College, Bush received 286 votes to Kerry's 252.[4]

Background

George W. Bush won the presidency in 2000 after the Supreme Court's decision in Bush v. Gore remanded the case to the Florida Supreme Court, which declared there was not sufficient time to hold a recount without violating the U.S. Constitution. After the election, recounts conducted by various United States news media organizations indicated that Bush would have won if certain recounting methods had been used (including the one favored by Gore at the time of the Supreme Court decision) but that Gore might have won under other scenarios.

Just eight months into his presidency, the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 suddenly transformed Bush into a wartime president. Bush's approval ratings surged to near 90%. Within a month, the forces of a coalition led by the United States entered Afghanistan, which had been sheltering Osama bin Laden, suspected mastermind of the September 11 attacks. By December, the Taliban had been removed as rulers of Kabul, although a long and ongoing reconstruction would follow, severely hampered by ongoing turmoil and violence within the country.

The Bush administration then turned its attention to Iraq, and argued the need to remove Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq had become urgent. Among the stated reasons were that Saddam's regime had tried to acquire nuclear material and had not properly accounted for biological and chemical material it was known to have previously possessed, and believed to still maintain. Both the possession of these weapons of mass destruction (WMD), and the failure to account for them, would violate the U.N. sanctions. The assertion about WMD was hotly advanced by the Bush administration from the beginning, but other major powers including China, France, Germany, and Russia remained unconvinced that Iraq was a threat and refused to allow passage of a UN Security Council resolution to authorize the use of force.[5] Iraq permitted UN weapon inspectors in November 2002, who were continuing their work to assess the WMD claim when the Bush administration decided to proceed with war without UN authorization and told the inspectors to leave the country.[6] The United States invaded Iraq on March 20, 2003, along with a "coalition of the willing" that consisted of additional troops from the United Kingdom, and to a lesser extent, from Australia and Poland. Within about three weeks, the invasion caused the collapse of both the Iraqi government and its armed forces, however, the U.S. and allied forces failed to find any weapon of mass destruction in Iraq. Traces of former materials and weapons labs were reported to have been located, but no "smoking guns". Nevertheless, on May 1, George W. Bush landed on the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, in a Lockheed S-3 Viking, where he gave a speech announcing the end of "major combat operations" in the Iraq War. Bush's approval rating in May was at 66%, according to a CNN–USA Today–Gallup poll.[7] However, Bush's high approval ratings did not last. First, while the war itself was popular in the U.S., the reconstruction and attempted "democratization" of Iraq lost some support as months passed and casualty figures increased, with no decrease in violence nor progress toward stability or reconstruction. Second, as investigators combed through the country, they failed to find the predicted WMD stockpiles, which led to debate over the rationale for the war.

Nominations

Republican nomination

Candidates gallery

Bush's popularity rose as a wartime president, and he was able to ward off any serious challenge to the Republican nomination. Senator Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island considered challenging Bush on an anti-war platform in New Hampshire, but decided not to run after the capture of Saddam Hussein in December 2003.[8]

On March 10, 2004, Bush officially clinched the number of delegates needed to be nominated at the 2004 Republican National Convention in New York City. Bush accepted the nomination on September 2, 2004, and selected Vice President Dick Cheney as his running mate. (In New York, the ticket was also on the ballot as candidates of the Conservative Party of New York State.) During the convention and throughout the campaign, Bush focused on two themes: defending America against terrorism and building an ownership society. The ownership society included allowing people to invest some of their Social Security in the stock market, increasing home and stock ownership, and encouraging more people to buy their own health insurance.

Democratic Party nomination

Democratic candidates

Candidates gallery

Before the primaries

By summer of 2003, Howard Dean had become the apparent front runner for the Democratic nomination, performing strongly in most polls and leading the pack with the largest campaign war chest. Dean's strength as a fund raiser was attributed mainly to his embrace of the Internet for campaigning. The majority of his donations came from individual supporters, who became known as Deanites, or, more commonly, Deaniacs. Generally regarded as a pragmatic centrist during his time as governor, Dean emerged during his presidential campaign as a left-wing populist, denouncing the policies of the Bush administration (especially the 2003 invasion of Iraq) as well as fellow Democrats, who, in his view, failed to strongly oppose them. Senator Lieberman, a liberal on domestic issues but a hawk on the War on Terror, failed to gain traction with liberal Democratic primary voters.

In September 2003, retired four-star general Wesley Clark announced his intention to run in the presidential primary election for the Democratic Party nomination. His campaign focused on themes of leadership and patriotism; early campaign ads relied heavily on biography. His late start left him with relatively few detailed policy proposals. This weakness was apparent in his first few debates, although he soon presented a range of position papers, including a major tax-relief plan. Nevertheless, the Democrats did not flock to support his campaign.

In sheer numbers, Kerry had fewer endorsements than Howard Dean, who was far ahead in the superdelegate race going into the Iowa caucuses in January 2004, although Kerry led the endorsement race in Iowa, New Hampshire, Arizona, South Carolina, New Mexico and Nevada. Kerry's main perceived weakness was in his neighboring state of New Hampshire and nearly all national polls. Most other states did not have updated polling numbers to give an accurate placing for the Kerry campaign before Iowa. Heading into the primaries, Kerry's campaign was largely seen as in trouble, particularly after he fired campaign manager Jim Jordan. The key factors enabling it to survive were when fellow Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy assigned Mary Beth Cahill to be the campaign manager, as well as Kerry's mortgaging his own home to lend the money to his campaign (while his wife was a billionaire, campaign finance rules prohibited using one's personal fortune). He also brought on the "magical" Michael Whouley who would be credited with helping bring home the Iowa victory the same as he did in New Hampshire for Al Gore in 2000 against Bill Bradley.

In the race for individual contributions, economist Lyndon LaRouche dominated the pack leading up to the primaries. According to the Federal Election Commission statistics, LaRouche had more individual contributors to his 2004 presidential campaign than any other candidate, until the final quarter of the primary season, when John Kerry surpassed him. As of the April 15 filing, LaRouche had 7834 individual contributions, of those who have given cumulatively, $200 or more, as compared to 6257 for John Kerry, 5582 for John Edwards, 4090 for Howard Dean, and 2744 for Gephardt.[9]

Iowa caucus

By the January 2004 Iowa caucuses, the field had dwindled down to nine candidates, as Bob Graham had dropped out of the race. Howard Dean was a strong front-runner. However, the Iowa caucuses yielded unexpectedly strong results for Democratic candidates John Kerry, who earned 38% of the state's delegates and John Edwards, who took 32%. Former front-runner Howard Dean slipped to 18% and third place, and Richard Gephardt finished fourth (11%). In the days leading up to the Iowa vote, there was much negative campaigning between the Dean and Gephardt camps.

The dismal results caused Gephardt to drop out and later endorse Kerry. Carol Moseley Braun also dropped out, endorsing Howard Dean. Besides the impact of coming in third, Dean was further hurt by a speech he gave at a post-caucus rally. Dean was shouting over the cheers of his enthusiastic audience, but the crowd noise was being filtered out by his unidirectional microphone, leaving only his full-throated exhortations audible to the television viewers. To those at home, he seemed to raise his voice out of sheer emotion. The incessant replaying of the "Dean Scream" by the press became a debate on the topic of whether Dean was the victim of media bias. The scream scene was shown approximately 633 times by cable and broadcast news networks in just four days following the incident, a number that does not include talk shows and local news broadcasts.[10] However, those who were in the actual audience that day insist that they were not aware of the infamous "scream" until they returned to their hotel rooms and saw it on TV.[11]

Kerry had revived his campaign and began using the slogan "Comeback Kerry."

New Hampshire primary

On January 27, Kerry triumphed again, winning the New Hampshire primary. Dean finished second, Clark was third, and Edwards placed fourth. The largest of the debates was held at Saint Anselm College where both Kerry and Dean had strong performances.

South Carolina primary

Senator Kerry at a primary rally in St. Louis, Missouri, at the St. Louis Community College – Forest Park

The following week, John Edwards won the South Carolina primary and finished a strong second in Oklahoma to Clark. Lieberman dropped out of the campaign the following day. Kerry dominated throughout February and his support quickly snowballed as he won caucuses and primaries, taking in a string of wins in Michigan, Washington, Maine, Tennessee, Washington, D.C., Nevada, Wisconsin, Utah, Hawaii, and Idaho. Clark and Dean dropped out during this time, leaving Edwards as the only real threat to Kerry. Kucinich and Sharpton continued to run despite poor results at the polls.

Super Tuesday

In March's Super Tuesday, Kerry won decisive victories in the California, Connecticut, Georgia, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Ohio, and Rhode Island primaries and the Minnesota caucuses. Dean, despite having withdrawn from the race two weeks earlier, won his home state of Vermont. Edwards finished only slightly behind Kerry in Georgia, but, failing to win a single state other than South Carolina, chose to withdraw from the presidential race. Sharpton followed suit a couple weeks later. Kucinich did not leave the race officially until July.

Democratic National Convention

On July 6, John Kerry selected John Edwards as his running mate, shortly before the 2004 Democratic National Convention in Boston, held later that month. Days before Kerry announced Edwards as his running mate, Kerry gave a short list of three candidates: Sen John Edwards, Rep Dick Gephardt, and Gov Tom Vilsack. Heading into the convention, the Kerry/Edwards ticket unveiled their new slogan—a promise to make America "stronger at home and more respected in the world." Kerry made his Vietnam War experience the prominent theme of the convention. In accepting the nomination, he began his speech with, "I'm John Kerry and I'm reporting for duty." He later delivered what may have been the speech's most memorable line when he said, "the future doesn't belong to fear, it belongs to freedom", a quote that later appeared in a Kerry/Edwards television advertisement.

The keynote address at the convention was delivered by Illinois State Senator (and future president) Barack Obama; the speech was well received and elevated his status within the Democratic Party.[12]

Other nominations

David Cobb the Green Party candidate
Libertarian candidate Michael Badnarik

There were four other presidential tickets on the ballot in a number of states totaling enough electoral votes to have a theoretical possibility of winning a majority in the Electoral College. They were:

General election campaign

Campaign issues

Bush focused his campaign on national security, presenting himself as a decisive leader and contrasted Kerry as a "flip-flopper." This strategy was designed to convey to American voters the idea that Bush could be trusted to be tough on terrorism while Kerry would be "uncertain in the face of danger." Bush (just as his father did with Dukakis in the 1988 election) also sought to portray Kerry as a "Massachusetts liberal" who was out of touch with mainstream Americans. One of Kerry's slogans was "Stronger at home, respected in the world." This advanced the suggestion that Kerry would pay more attention to domestic concerns; it also encapsulated Kerry's contention that Bush had alienated American allies by his foreign policy.

According to one exit poll, people who voted for Bush cited the issues of terrorism and traditional values as the most important factors in their decision.[14] Kerry supporters cited the war in Iraq, the economy and jobs, and health care.[14]

Bush speaking at campaign rally in St. Petersburg, Florida, October 19, 2004

Over the course of Bush's first term in office, his extremely high approval ratings immediately following the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks steadily dwindled, peaking only during combat operations in Iraq in the spring of 2003, and again following the capture of Saddam Hussein in December the same year.[15] Kerry supporters attempted to capitalize on the dwindling popularity to rally anti-war sentiment.

In March 2004, the Bush/Cheney campaign was criticized by 2004 Racism Watch. The organization took offense to a campaign ad, which showed a man who was possibly Middle Eastern in a negative light. 2004 Racism Watch issued a press release calling on the campaign to pull the ad, calling it disturbing and offensive.[16]

During August and September 2004, there was an intense focus on events that occurred in the late 1960s and early 1970s. Bush was accused of failing to fulfill his required service in the Texas Air National Guard.[17] However, the focus quickly shifted to the conduct of CBS News after they aired a segment on 60 Minutes Wednesday introducing what became known as the Killian documents.[18] Serious doubts about the documents' authenticity quickly emerged,[19] leading CBS to appoint a review panel that eventually resulted in the firing of the news producer and other significant staffing changes.[20][21]

Meanwhile, Kerry was accused by the Swift Vets and POWs for Truth, who averred that "phony war crimes charges, his exaggerated claims about his own service in Vietnam, and his deliberate misrepresentation of the nature and effectiveness of Swift boat operations compels us to step forward." The group challenged the legitimacy of each of the combat medals awarded to Kerry by the U.S. Navy, and the disposition of his discharge.

In the beginning of September, the successful Republican National Convention along with the allegations by Kerry's former mates gave Bush his first comfortable margin since Kerry had won the nomination. A post-convention Gallup poll showed the President leading the Senator by 14 points.[22][23]

Debates

Neighboring yard signs for Bush and Kerry in Grosse Pointe, Michigan

Three presidential debates and one vice presidential debate were organized by the Commission on Presidential Debates, and held in the autumn of 2004. As expected, these debates set the agenda for the final leg of the political contest. Libertarian Party candidate Michael Badnarik and Green Party candidate David Cobb were arrested while trying to access the debates. Badnarik was attempting to serve papers to the Commission on Presidential Debates.

The first debate was held on September 30 at the University of Miami, moderated by Jim Lehrer of PBS. During the debate, slated to focus on foreign policy, Kerry accused Bush of having failed to gain international support for the 2003 Invasion of Iraq, saying the only countries assisting the U.S. during the invasion were the United Kingdom and Australia. Bush replied to this by saying, "Well, actually, he forgot Poland." Later, a consensus formed among mainstream pollsters and pundits that Kerry won the debate decisively, strengthening what had come to be seen as a weak and troubled campaign.[24] In the days after, coverage focused on Bush's apparent annoyance with Kerry and numerous scowls and negative facial expressions.

On October 5, the vice presidential debate between Dick Cheney and John Edwards was held at Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland, Ohio, and was moderated by Gwen Ifill of PBS. An initial poll by ABC indicated a victory for Cheney, while polls by CNN and MSNBC gave it to Edwards.[25][26][27][28]

The second presidential debate was held at Washington University in St. Louis, Missouri, on October 8, moderated by Charles Gibson of ABC. Conducted in a town meeting format, less formal than the first presidential debate, this debate saw Bush and Kerry taking questions on a variety of subjects from a local audience.[29] Bush attempted to deflect criticism of what was described as his scowling demeanor during the first debate, joking at one point about one of Kerry's remarks, "That answer made me want to scowl."[30]

Bush and Kerry met for the third and final debate at Arizona State University on October 13.[31] 51 million viewers watched the debate which was moderated by Bob Schieffer of CBS News. However, at the time of the ASU debate, there were 15.2 million viewers tuned in to watch the Major League Baseball playoffs broadcast simultaneously. After Kerry, responding to a question about gay rights, reminded the audience that Vice President Cheney's daughter was a lesbian, Cheney responded with a statement calling himself "a pretty angry father" due to Kerry using Cheney's daughter's sexual orientation for his political purposes.[32]

Osama bin Laden videotape

On October 29, four days before the election, excerpts of a video of Osama bin Laden addressing the American people were broadcast on al Jazeera. In his remarks, bin Laden mentions the September 11, 2001 attacks and taunted Bush over his response to them. In the days following the video's release, Bush's lead over Kerry increased by several points.[33]

Notable expressions and phrases

Election results

Presidential candidate Party Home state Popular vote Electoral
vote		 Running mate
Count Pct Vice-presidential candidate Home state Elect. vote
George Walker Bush Republican Texas 62,040,610 50.73% 286 Richard Bruce Cheney Wyoming 286
John Forbes Kerry Democratic Massachusetts 59,028,444 48.27% 251 John Reid Edwards North Carolina 251
John Edwards Democratic North Carolina —(a) —(a) 1 John Reid Edwards North Carolina 1
Ralph Nader Independent Connecticut 465,151 0.38% 0 Peter Camejo California 0
Michael Badnarik Libertarian Texas 397,265 0.32% 0 Richard Campagna Iowa 0
Michael Peroutka Constitution Maryland 143,630 0.12% 0 Chuck Baldwin Florida 0
David Cobb Green Texas 119,859 0.10% 0 Pat LaMarche Maine 0
Leonard Peltier Peace and Freedom Pennsylvania 27,607 0.02% 0 Janice Jordan California 0
Walt Brown Socialist Oregon 10,837 0.01% 0 Mary Alice Herbert Vermont 0
Róger Calero(b) Socialist Workers New York 10,791 0.01% 0 Arrin Hawkins(b) Minnesota 0
Other 50,652 0.04% — Other —
Total 122,294,846 100% 538 538
Needed to win 270 270

Source (Electoral and Popular Vote): Federal Elections Commission Electoral and Popular Vote Summary Voting age population: 215,664,000

Percent of voting age population casting a vote for president: 56.70%

(a) One faithless elector from Minnesota cast an electoral vote for John Edwards for president.[34]
(b) Because Arrin Hawkins, then aged 28, was constitutionally ineligible to serve as vice president, Margaret Trowe replaced her on the ballot in some states. James Harris replaced Calero on certain other states' ballots.

Popular vote
Bush
  
 50.73%
Kerry
  
 48.27%
Nader
  
 0.38%
Badnarik
  
 0.32%
Peroutka
  
 0.12%
Others
  
 0.17%
Electoral vote
Bush
  
 53.16%
Kerry
  
 46.65%
Edwards
  
 0.19%

Votes by state

The following table records the official vote tallies for each state as reported by the official Federal Election Commission report. The column labeled "Margin" shows Bush's margin of victory over Kerry (the margin is negative for states and districts won by Kerry).

States/districts won by Bush/Cheney
States/districts won by Kerry/Edwards
George W. Bush
Republican		 John Kerry
Democratic		 Ralph Nader
Independent / Reform		 Michael Badnarik
Libertarian		 Michael Peroutka
Constitution		 David Cobb
Green		 Others Margin State Total
State electoral
votes		 # % electoral
votes		 # % electoral
votes		 # % electoral
votes		 # % electoral
votes		 # % electoral
votes		 # % electoral
votes		 # % electoral
votes		 # % #
Alabama91,176,39462.46%9693,93336.84%–6,7010.36%–3,5290.19%–1,9940.11%–00.00%–8980.05%–482,46125.62%1,883,449AL
Alaska3190,88961.07%3111,02535.52%–5,0691.62%–1,6750.54%–2,0920.67%–1,0580.34%–7900.25%–79,86425.55%312,598AK
Arizona101,104,29454.87%10893,52444.40%–2,7730.14%–11,8560.59%–00.00%–1380.01%–00.00%–210,77010.47%2,012,585AZ
Arkansas6572,89854.31%6469,95344.55%–6,1710.58%–2,3520.22%–2,0830.20%–1,4880.14%–00.00%–102,9459.76%1,054,945AR
California555,509,82644.36%–6,745,48554.31%5520,7140.17%–50,1650.40%–26,6450.21%–40,7710.33%–27,7470.22%–−1,235,659−9.95%12,421,353CA
Colorado91,101,25551.69%91,001,73247.02%–12,7180.60%–7,6640.36%–2,5620.12%–1,5910.07%–2,8080.13%–99,5234.67%2,130,330CO
Connecticut7693,82643.95%–857,48854.31%712,9690.82%–3,3670.21%–1,5430.10%–9,5640.61%–120.00%–−163,662−10.37%1,578,769CT
Delaware3171,66045.75%–200,15253.35%32,1530.57%–5860.16%–2890.08%–2500.07%–1000.03%–−28,492−7.59%375,190DE
District of Columbia321,2569.34%–202,97089.18%31,4850.65%–5020.22%–00.00%–7370.32%–6360.28%–−181,714−79.84%227,586DC
Florida273,964,52252.10%273,583,54447.09%–32,9710.43%–11,9960.16%–6,6260.09%–3,9170.05%–6,2340.08%–380,9785.01%7,609,810FL
Georgia151,914,25457.97%151,366,14941.37%–2,2310.07%–18,3870.56%–5800.02%–2280.01%–460.00%–548,10516.60%3,301,875GA
Hawaii4194,19145.26%–231,70854.01%400.00%–1,3770.32%–00.00%–1,7370.40%–00.00%–−37,517−8.74%429,013HI
Idaho4409,23568.38%4181,09830.26%–1,1150.19%–3,8440.64%–3,0840.52%–580.01%–130.00%–228,13738.12%598,447ID
Illinois212,345,94644.48%–2,891,55054.82%213,5710.07%–32,4420.62%–4400.01%–2410.00%–1320.00%–−545,604−10.34%5,274,322IL
Indiana111,479,43859.94%11969,01139.26%–1,3280.05%–18,0580.73%–00.00%–1020.00%–650.00%–510,42720.68%2,468,002IN
Iowa7751,95749.90%7741,89849.23%–5,9730.40%–2,9920.20%–1,3040.09%–1,1410.08%–1,6430.11%–10,0590.67%1,506,908IA
Kansas6736,45662.00%6434,99336.62%–9,3480.79%–4,0130.34%–2,8990.24%–330.00%–140.00%–301,46325.38%1,187,756KS
Kentucky81,069,43959.55%8712,73339.69%–8,8560.49%–2,6190.15%–2,2130.12%–00.00%–220.00%–356,70619.86%1,795,882KY
Louisiana91,102,16956.72%9820,29942.22%–7,0320.36%–2,7810.14%–5,2030.27%–1,2760.07%–4,3460.22%–281,87014.51%1,943,106LA
Maine★4330,20144.58%–396,84253.57%48,0691.09%–1,9650.27%–7350.10%–2,9360.40%–40.00%–−66,641−9.00%740,752ME
Maryland101,024,70342.93%–1,334,49355.91%1011,8540.50%–6,0940.26%–3,4210.14%–3,6320.15%–2,4810.10%–−309,790−12.98%2,386,678MD
Massachusetts121,071,10936.78%–1,803,80061.94%124,8060.17%–15,0220.52%–00.00%–10,6230.36%–7,0280.24%–−732,691−25.16%2,912,388MA
Michigan172,313,74647.81%–2,479,18351.23%1724,0350.50%–10,5520.22%–4,9800.10%–5,3250.11%–1,4310.03%–−165,437−3.42%4,839,252MI
Minnesota101,346,69547.61%–1,445,01451.09%918,6830.66%–4,6390.16%–3,0740.11%–4,4080.16%–5,8740.21%–−98,319−3.48%2,828,387MN
Mississippi6684,98159.45%6458,09439.76%–3,1770.28%–1,7930.16%–1,7590.15%–1,0730.09%–1,2680.11%–226,88719.69%1,152,145MS
Missouri111,455,71353.30%111,259,17146.10%–1,2940.05%–9,8310.36%–5,3550.20%–00.00%–00.00%–196,5427.20%2,731,364MO
Montana3266,06359.07%3173,71038.56%–6,1681.37%–1,7330.38%–1,7640.39%–9960.22%–110.00%–92,35320.50%450,445MT
Nebraska★5512,81465.90%5254,32832.68%–5,6980.73%–2,0410.26%–1,3140.17%–9780.13%–1,0130.13%–258,48633.22%778,186NE
Nevada5418,69050.47%5397,19047.88%–4,8380.58%–3,1760.38%–1,1520.14%–8530.10%–3,6880.44%–21,5002.59%829,587NV
New Hampshire4331,23748.87%–340,51150.24%44,4790.66%–3720.05%–1610.02%–00.00%–9780.14%–−9,274−1.37%677,738NH
New Jersey151,670,00346.24%–1,911,43052.92%1519,4180.54%–4,5140.12%–2,7500.08%–1,8070.05%–1,7690.05%–−241,427−6.68%3,611,691NJ
New Mexico5376,93049.84%5370,94249.05%–4,0530.54%–2,3820.31%–7710.10%–1,2260.16%–00.00%–5,9880.79%756,304NM
New York312,962,56740.08%–4,314,28058.37%3199,8731.35%–11,6070.16%–2070.00%–870.00%–2,4150.03%–−1,351,713−18.29%7,391,036NY
North Carolina151,961,16656.02%151,525,84943.58%–1,8050.05%–11,7310.34%–00.00%–1080.00%–3480.01%–435,31712.43%3,501,007NC
North Dakota3196,65162.86%3111,05235.50%–3,7561.20%–8510.27%–5140.16%–00.00%–90.00%–85,59927.36%312,833ND
Ohio202,859,76850.81%202,741,16748.71%–00.00%–14,6760.26%–11,9390.21%–1920.00%–1660.00%–118,6012.11%5,627,908OH
Oklahoma7959,79265.57%7503,96634.43%–00.00%–00.00%–00.00%–00.00%–00.00%–455,82631.14%1,463,758OK
Oregon7866,83147.19%–943,16351.35%700.00%–7,2600.40%–5,2570.29%–5,3150.29%–8,9560.49%–−76,332−4.16%1,836,782OR
Pennsylvania212,793,84748.42%–2,938,09550.92%212,6560.05%–21,1850.37%–6,3180.11%–6,3190.11%–1,1700.02%–−144,248−2.50%5,769,590PA
Rhode Island4169,04638.67%–259,76559.42%44,6511.06%–9070.21%–3390.08%–1,3330.30%–1,0930.25%–−90,719−20.75%437,134RI
South Carolina8937,97457.98%8661,69940.90%–5,5200.34%–3,6080.22%–5,3170.33%–1,4880.09%–2,1240.13%–276,27517.08%1,617,730SC
South Dakota3232,58459.91%3149,24438.44%–4,3201.11%–9640.25%–1,1030.28%–00.00%–00.00%–83,34021.47%388,215SD
Tennessee111,384,37556.80%111,036,47742.53%–8,9920.37%–4,8660.20%–2,5700.11%–330.00%–60.00%–347,89814.27%2,437,319TN
Texas344,526,91761.09%342,832,70438.22%–9,1590.12%–38,7870.52%–1,6360.02%–1,0140.01%–5480.01%–1,694,21322.86%7,410,765TX
Utah5663,74271.54%5241,19926.00%–11,3051.22%–3,3750.36%–6,8410.74%–390.00%–1,3430.14%–422,54345.54%927,844UT
Vermont3121,18038.80%–184,06758.94%34,4941.44%–1,1020.35%–00.00%–00.00%–1,4660.47%–−62,887−20.14%312,309VT
Virginia131,716,95953.68%131,454,74245.48%–2,3930.07%–11,0320.34%–10,1610.32%–1040.00%–2,9760.09%–262,2178.20%3,198,367VA
Washington111,304,89445.64%–1,510,20152.82%1123,2830.81%–11,9550.42%–3,9220.14%–2,9740.10%–1,8550.06%–−205,307−7.18%2,859,084WA
West Virginia5423,77856.06%5326,54143.20%–4,0630.54%–1,4050.19%–820.01%–50.00%–130.00%–97,23712.86%755,887WV
Wisconsin101,478,12049.32%–1,489,50449.70%1016,3900.55%–6,4640.22%–00.00%–2,6610.09%–3,8680.13%–−11,384−0.38%2,997,007WI
Wyoming3167,62968.86%370,77629.07%–2,7411.13%–1,1710.48%–6310.26%–00.00%–4800.20%–96,85339.79%243,428WY
U.S Total53862,040,61050.73%28659,028,44448.27%251465,1510.38%–397,2650.32%–143,6300.12%–119,8590.10%–99,8870.08%–3,012,1662.46%122,294,846US

Although Guam has no votes in the Electoral College, they have held a straw poll for their presidential preferences since 1980. In 2004, the results were Bush 21,490 (64.1%), Kerry 11,781 (35.1%), Nader 196 (0.58%) and Badnarik 67 (0.2%).[35]

Maine and Nebraska district results

★Maine and Nebraska each allow for their electoral votes to be split between candidates. In both states, two electoral votes are awarded to the winner of the statewide race and one electoral vote is awarded to the winner of each congressional district. The following table records the official presidential vote tallies for Maine and Nebraska's congressional districts.[36][37]

District Electors Bush% Kerry% Nader% Badnarik% Peroutka% Cobb% Other% Margin % Total
Maine's 1st congressional district 1165,82443.14%211,70355.07%4,0041.04%1,0470.27%3460.09%1,4680.38%––−45,879−11.94%384,392
Maine's 2nd congressional district 1164,37746.13%185,13951.95%4,0651.14%9180.26%3890.11%1,4680.41%––−20,762−5.83%356,356
Nebraska's 1st congressional district 1169,88862.97%96,31435.70%2,0250.75%6560.24%4050.15%4530.17%300.01%73,57427.27%269,771
Nebraska's 2nd congressional district 1153,04160.24%97,85838.52%1,7310.68%8130.32%3050.12%2610.10%230.01%55,18321.72%254,032
Nebraska's 3rd congressional district 1189,88574.92%60,15623.73%1,9420.77%5720.23%6040.24%2640.10%290.01%129,72951.18%253,452

Close states

Red font color denotes those won by Republican President George W. Bush; blue denotes states won by Democrat John Kerry.

States where margin of victory was under 5% (115 electoral votes):

  1. Wisconsin 0.38%
  2. Iowa 0.67%
  3. New Mexico 0.79%
  4. New Hampshire 1.37%
  5. Ohio 2.11%
  6. Pennsylvania 2.50%
  7. Nevada 2.59%
  8. Michigan 3.42%
  9. Minnesota 3.48%
  10. Oregon 4.16%
  11. Colorado 4.67%

States where margin of victory was more than 5% but less than 10% (149 electoral votes):

  1. Florida 5.01%
  2. New Jersey 6.68%
  3. Washington 7.18%
  4. Missouri 7.20%
  5. Delaware 7.59%
  6. Virginia 8.20%
  7. Hawaii 8.74%
  8. Maine 9.00%
  9. Arkansas 9.76%
  10. California 9.95%

Notes on results

Bush received 62,040,610 popular votes compared to Kerry's 59,028,444.

Because of a request by Ralph Nader, New Hampshire held a recount. In New York, Bush obtained 2,806,993 votes on the Republican ticket and 155,574 on the Conservative ticket. Kerry obtained 4,180,755 votes on the Democratic ticket and 133,525 votes on the Working Families ticket. Nader obtained 84,247 votes on the Independence ticket, and 15,626 votes on the Peace and Justice ticket.

Note also: Official Federal Election Commission Report, with the latest, most final, and complete vote totals available.

Finance

These maps show the amount of attention given by the campaigns to the close states. At left, each waving hand represents a visit from a presidential or vice-presidential candidate during the final five weeks. At right, each dollar sign represents one million dollars spent on TV advertising by the campaigns during the same time period.

Source: FEC[38]

2004 United States Electoral College

Ballot access

Presidential ticket Party Ballot access
Bush / Cheney Republican 50+DC
Kerry / Edwards Democrat 50+DC
Badnarik / Campagna Libertarian 48+DC
Peroutka / Baldwin Constitution 36
Nader / Camejo Independent, Reform 34+DC
Cobb / LaMarche Green 27+DC

Faithless elector in Minnesota

One elector in Minnesota cast a ballot for president with the name of "John Ewards" [sic] written on it.[39] The Electoral College officials certified this ballot as a vote for John Edwards for president. The remaining nine electors cast ballots for John Kerry. All ten electors in the state cast ballots for John Edwards for vice president (John Edwards's name was spelled correctly on all ballots for vice president).[40] This was the first time in U.S. history that an elector had cast a vote for the same person to be both president and vice president; another faithless elector in the 1800 election had voted twice for Aaron Burr, but under that electoral system only votes for the president's position were cast, with the runner-up in the Electoral College becoming vice president (and the second vote for Burr was discounted and re-assigned to Thomas Jefferson in any event, as it violated Electoral College rules).

Electoral balloting in Minnesota was performed by secret ballot, and none of the electors admitted to casting the Edwards vote for president, so it may never be known who the faithless elector was. It is not even known whether the vote for Edwards was deliberate or unintentional; the Republican Secretary of State and several of the Democratic electors have expressed the opinion that this was an accident.[41]

Electoral vote error in New York

New York's initial electoral vote certificate indicated that all of its 31 electoral votes for president were cast for "John L. Kerry of Massachusetts" instead of John F. Kerry, who won the popular vote in the state.[42] This was apparently the result of a typographical error, and an amended electoral vote certificate with the correct middle initial was transmitted to the President of the Senate prior to the official electoral vote count.[43]

Analysis

Map comparing voter turnout to result

Electoral College changes from 2000

With the completion of the 2000 census, Congressional reapportionment took place, moving some representative districts from the slowest growing states to the fastest growing. As a result, several states had a different number of electors in the U.S. Electoral College in 2004 than in 2000, since the number of electors allotted to each state is equal to the sum of the number of Senators and Representatives from that state.

The following table shows the change in electors from the 2000 election. Red states represent those won by Bush; and blue states, those won by both Gore and Kerry. All states except Nebraska and Maine use a winner-take-all allocation of electors. Each of these states was won by the same party in 2004 that had won it in 2000; thus, George W. Bush received a net gain of seven electoral votes due to reapportionment while the Democrats lost the same amount.

Gained votes Lost votes
  •      Arizona (8→10 Increase +2)
  •      Florida (25→27 Increase +2)
  •      Georgia (13→15 Increase +2)
  •      Texas (32→34 Increase +2)
  •      California (54→55 Increase +1)
  •      Colorado (8→9 Increase +1)
  •      North Carolina (14→15 Increase +1)
  •      Nevada (4→5 Increase +1)
  •      New York (33→31 Decrease -2)
  •      Pennsylvania (23→21 Decrease -2)
  •      Connecticut (8→7 Decrease -1)
  •      Mississippi (7→6 Decrease -1)
  •      Ohio (21→20 Decrease -1)
  •      Oklahoma (8→7 Decrease -1)
  •      Wisconsin (11→10 Decrease -1)
  •      Illinois (22→21 Decrease -1)
  •      Indiana (12→11 Decrease -1)
  •      Michigan (18→17 Decrease -1)

(This table uses the currently common Red→Republican, Blue→Democratic color association, as do the maps on this page. Some older party-affiliation maps use the opposite color-coding for historical reasons.)

Battleground states

Cheney visited Washington & Jefferson College in Pennsylvania on October 27, 2004[47]

During the campaign and as the results came in on the night of the election there was much focus on Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. These three swing states were seen as evenly divided, and with each casting 20 electoral votes or more, they had the power to decide the election. As the final results came in, Kerry took Pennsylvania and then Bush took Florida, focusing all attention on Ohio.

The morning after the election, the major candidates were neck and neck. It was clear that the result in Ohio, along with two other states who had still not declared (New Mexico and Iowa), would decide the winner. Bush had established a lead of around 130,000 votes but the Democrats pointed to provisional ballots that had yet to be counted, initially reported to number as high as 200,000. Bush had preliminary leads of less than 5% of the vote in only four states, but if Iowa, Nevada and New Mexico had all eventually gone to Kerry, a win for Bush in Ohio would have created a 269–269 tie in the Electoral College. The result of an electoral tie would cause the election to be decided in the House of Representatives with each state casting one vote, regardless of population. Such a scenario would almost certainly have resulted in a victory for Bush, as Republicans controlled more House delegations. Therefore, the outcome of the election hinged solely on the result in Ohio, regardless of the final totals elsewhere. In the afternoon Ohio's Secretary of State, Ken Blackwell, announced that it was statistically impossible for the Democrats to make up enough valid votes in the provisional ballots to win. At the time provisional ballots were reported as numbering 140,000 (and later estimated to be only 135,000). Faced with this announcement, John Kerry conceded defeat. Had Kerry won Ohio, he would have won the election despite losing the national popular vote by over 3 million votes, a complete reversal of the 2000 election when Bush won the presidency despite losing the popular vote to Al Gore by over 500,000 votes.

The upper Midwest bloc of Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin is also notable, casting a sum of 27 electoral votes. The following is list of the states considered swing states in the 2004 election by most news organizations and which candidate they eventually went for. The two major parties chose to focus their advertising on these states:

Bush:

Kerry:

Election controversy

Map of election day problems

After the election, some sources reported indications of possible data irregularities and systematic flaws during the voting process.

Although the overall result of the election was not challenged by the Kerry campaign, Green Party presidential candidate David Cobb and Libertarian Party presidential candidate Michael Badnarik obtained a recount in Ohio. This recount was completed December 28, 2004, although on January 24, 2007, a jury convicted two Ohio elections officials of selecting precincts to recount where they already knew the hand total would match the machine total, thereby avoiding having to perform a full recount.[48]

At the official counting of the electoral votes on January 6, a motion was made contesting Ohio's electoral votes. Because the motion was supported by at least one member of both the House of Representatives and the Senate, election law mandated that each house retire to debate and vote on the motion. In the House of Representatives, the motion was supported by 31 Democrats. It was opposed by 178 Republicans, 88 Democrats and one independent. Not voting were 52 Republicans and 80 Democrats.[49] Four people elected to the House had not yet taken office, and one seat was vacant. In the Senate, it was supported only by its maker, Senator Boxer, with 74 Senators opposed and 25 not voting. During the debate, no Senator argued that the outcome of the election should be changed by either court challenge or revote. Senator Boxer claimed that she had made the motion not to challenge the outcome, but to "shed the light of truth on these irregularities."

Kerry would later state that "the widespread irregularities make it impossible to know for certain that the [Ohio] outcome reflected the will of the voters." In the same article, Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean said "I'm not confident that the election in Ohio was fairly decided... We know that there was substantial voter suppression, and the machines were not reliable. It should not be a surprise that the Republicans are willing to do things that are unethical to manipulate elections. That's what we suspect has happened."[50]

Points of controversy

New during this campaign

International observers

At the invitation of the United States government, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) sent a team of observers to monitor the presidential elections in 2004. It was the first time the OSCE had sent observers to a U.S. presidential election, although they had been invited in the past.[73] In September 2004 the OSCE issued a report on U.S. electoral processes[74][75] and the election final report.[76] The report reads: "The November 2, 2004 elections in the United States mostly met the OSCE commitments included in the 1990 Copenhagen Document. They were conducted in an environment that reflects a long-standing democratic tradition, including institutions governed by the rule of law, free and generally professional media, and a civil society intensively engaged in the election process. There was exceptional public interest in the two leading presidential candidates and the issues raised by their respective campaigns, as well as in the election process itself."

Earlier, some 13 U.S. Representatives from the Democratic Party had sent a letter to United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan asking for the UN to monitor the elections. The UN responded that such a request could only come from the official national executive. The move was met by considerable opposition from Republican lawmakers.[77] The OSCE is not affiliated with the United Nations.

Electronic voting

Further information: Analysis of electronic voting

For 2004, some states expedited the implementation of electronic voting systems for the election, raising several issues:

Campaign law changes

The 2004 election was the first to be affected by the campaign finance reforms mandated by the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002 (also known as the McCain–Feingold Bill for its sponsors in the United States Senate). Because of the Act's restrictions on candidates' and parties' fundraising, a large number of so-called 527 groups emerged. Named for a section of the Internal Revenue Code, these groups were able to raise large amounts of money for various political causes as long as they do not coordinate their activities with political campaigns. Examples of 527s include Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, MoveOn.org, the Media Fund, and America Coming Together. Many such groups were active throughout the campaign season. (There was some similar activity, although on a much lesser scale, during the 2000 campaign.)

To distinguish official campaigning from independent campaigning, political advertisements on television were required to include a verbal disclaimer identifying the organization responsible for the advertisement. Advertisements produced by political campaigns usually included the statement, "I'm [candidate's name], and I approve this message." Advertisements produced by independent organizations usually included the statement, "[Organization name] is responsible for the content of this advertisement", and from September 3 (60 days before the general election), such organizations' ads were prohibited from mentioning any candidate by name. Previously, television advertisements only required a written "paid for by" disclaimer on the screen.

This law was not well known or widely publicized at the beginning of the Democratic primary season, which led to some early misperception of Howard Dean, who was the first candidate to buy television advertising in this election cycle. Not realizing that the law required the phrasing, some people viewing the ads reportedly questioned why Dean might say such a thing—such questions were easier to ask because of the maverick nature of Dean's campaign in general.

Colorado's Amendment 36

Main article: Colorado Amendment 36

A ballot initiative in Colorado, known as Amendment 36, would have changed the way in which the state apportions its electoral votes. Rather than assigning all 9 of the state's electors to the candidate with a plurality of popular votes, under the amendment Colorado would have assigned presidential electors proportionally to the statewide vote count, which would be a unique system (Nebraska and Maine assign electoral votes based on vote totals within each congressional district). Detractors claimed that this splitting would diminish Colorado's influence in the Electoral College, and the amendment ultimately failed, receiving only 34% of the vote.

Although the Colorado initiative failed, similar concerns in other states eventually led to the emergence of National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, which was signed by the first state in April 2007 and was adopted by 10 states and DC, adding up to 165 electoral votes, by December 2015.

See also

Other elections

References

  1. ↑ http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/data/turnout.php
  2. 1 2 "Federal Elections 2004: Election Results for the U.S. President, the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives" (PDF). Federal Election Commission. May 2005. Retrieved November 20, 2012.
  3. ↑ One Minnesota elector voted for John Edwards for both president and vice president. During the counting of the vote in Congress, Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones (D-Ohio) and Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) raised objections to the Ohio Certificate of Vote alleging that the votes were not regularly given. Both houses voted to override the objection, 74 to 1 in the Senate and 267 to 31 in the House of Representatives. See 2004 presidential election results from the National Archives and Records Administration.
  4. ↑ "Campaign 2004 Election Results". USA Today. Retrieved January 16, 2013.
  5. ↑ Tagliabue, John (March 5, 2003). "France, Germany and Russia Vow to Stop Use of Force Against Iraq". The New York Times.
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  77. ↑ Washington Times August 6, 2004
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  79. ↑ Warner, Melanie. "Machine Politics in the Digital Age." New York Times. November 9, 2003.

Sources

Books

External links

Official candidate websites

Election maps and analysis

State-by-state forecasts of electoral vote outcome

Controversies

Election campaign funding

Campaign ads

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