Basque parliamentary election, 2016

Next Basque parliamentary election

On or before 20 November 2016

All 75 seats in the Basque Parliament 38 seats needed for a majority   Leader Iñigo Urkullu Arnaldo Otegi Idoia Mendia Party EAJ-PNV EH Bildu PSE-EE (PSOE) Leader since 2 December 2007 12 March 2016 20 September 2014 Last election 27 seats, 34.2% 21 seats, 24.7% 16 seats, 18.9% Current seats 27 21 16 Seats needed 11 17 22   Leader Alfonso Alonso Gorka Maneiro Party PP UPyD Leader since 15 October 2015 2008 Last election 10 seats, 11.6% 1 seat, 1.9% Current seats 10 1 Seats needed 28 37

Incumbent Lehendakari Iñigo Urkullu EAJ-PNV

The next Basque parliamentary election will be held on or before Sunday, 20 November 2016, to elect the 11th Basque Parliament, the regional legislature of the Spanish autonomous community of the Basque Country. At stake will be all 75 seats in the Parliament, determining the Lehendakari of the Basque Country.

Electoral system

The 75 members of the Basque Parliament are elected in 3 multi-member districts, corresponding to the Basque Country's three provinces, using the D'Hondt method and a closed-list proportional representation system. Each district is assigned a fixed set of seats, distributed as follows: Alava (25), Biscay (25) and Gipuzkoa (25).

Voting is on the basis of universal suffrage in a secret ballot. Only party lists polling above 3% of valid votes in each district (which include blank ballots—for none of the above) are entitled to enter the seat distribution.

However owing to large discrepancies in population between the three provinces each of the 25 elected members in Araba represents around 6000 electors while in the more populous Biscay or Bizkaia each of the 25 elected members represents over 20,000 electors. ^[1]

Latest possible date

The next general election cannot be held later than Sunday 20 November 2016. This date is determined as follows:

Law	Requirement	Comments
SoABC: Article 26.4[2]	The Parliament will be elected for a term of four years.	The 2012 election was held on 21 October 2012. Four years after 21 October 2012 is 21 October 2016.
Ley 5/1990: Article 47.2 and 47.3[3]	Except in the case of an early dissolution, the decree calling for new elections will be issued 25 days before the expiry date of the Parliament (...) and [the decree] will be published the following day after its issuing. The decree will enter into force on the day of its publication.	25 days before 21 October 2016 is 26 September 2016. The day after 26 September 2016 is 27 September 2016.
Ley 5/1990: Article 47.3[3]	(...) Voting must take place 54 days from the publication [of the election calling decree].	54 days after 27 September 2016 is 20 November 2016.

Opinion polls

Vote

Poll results are listed in the tables below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. When a specific poll does not show a data figure for a party, the party's cell corresponding to that poll is shown empty.

Polling Firm/Link	Last Date of Polling									Margin of Error	Sample Size	Lead
Gizaker	April 14, 2016	35.3	19.0	12.1	8.8	2.4	0.2	2.3	19.1	±2.8 pp	1,200	16.2
GPS	February 2, 2016	31.3	19.1	12.0	8.8	2.5	0.2	3.3	20.5	±2.1 pp	2,310	10.8
UPV/EHU	January 31, 2016	29.3	16.3	12.2	9.4			3.6	25.2	±4.1 pp	600	4.1
Redondo & Asociados	January 16, 2016	30.0	19.0	12.8	8.3	3.0			25.0			5.0
General Election	December 20, 2015	24.8	15.1	13.3	11.6	2.9	0.3	4.1	26.0			1.2
UPV/EHU	June 15, 2015	33.5	23.1	14.5	8.1		1.7		15.1	±4.1 pp	600	10.4
JJGG Election	May 24, 2015	33.3	22.4	13.6	9.3	2.7	0.5	2.1	13.7			10.9
Municipal Elections	May 24, 2015	33.1	23.4	14.6	9.4	3.1	0.1	1.6				9.7
UPV/EHU	November 14, 2014	30.5	19.7	12.8	8.1	3.2	2.2		25.6	±4.1 pp	600	4.9
EP Election	May 25, 2014	27.5	23.4	13.8	10.2	5.6	3.3	0.8	6.9			4.1
UPV/EHU	May 19, 2014	34.2	23.9	16.5	8.1	6.4	2.2		4.8	±4.1 pp	600	10.3
UPV/EHU	November 15, 2013	34.9	25.9	15.5	9.6	4.4	2.2			±2.8 pp	1,200	9.0
GPS	October 11, 2013	34.7	24.1	17.7	10.8	3.1	2.3			±2.1 pp	2,289	10.6
UPV/EHU	May 27, 2013	34	24	18	10	4	3			±2.8 pp	1,200	10
GPS	April 27, 2013	34.9	24.2	17.8	10.0	3.1	2.5			±2.1 pp	2,277	10.7
Regional Election	October 21, 2012	34.2	24.7	18.9	11.6	2.7	1.9					9.5

Seats

Opinion polls showing seat projections are displayed in the table below. The highest seat figures in each polling survey have their background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. 38 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Basque Parliament.

38 seats needed for majority

Polling Firm/Link	Last Date of Polling
Gizaker	April 14, 2016	27	15	10	7	0	0	1	15
GPS	February 2, 2016	24	15	9	8	0	0	1	18
UPV/EHU	January 31, 2016	22/23	13	9	8/9	0	0	1/3	19/21
Redondo & Asociados	January 16, 2016	22/23	13/14	10	6	0/1	0	0	21/22
UPV/EHU	June 15, 2015	25/26	18/19	10/11	7/8	0	0	0	11/12
JJGG Election	May 24, 2015	(26)	(18)	(10)	(9)	(1)	(0)	(0)	(11)
UPV/EHU	November 14, 2014	22/23	13/14	10	6	0/1	0/1	0	21/22
UPV/EHU	May 19, 2014	29	22	12	7	3	1	0	1
UPV/EHU	November 15, 2013	29	23	12	8	2	1
GPS	October 11, 2013	27	21	15	10	1	1
UPV/EHU	May 27, 2013	28	20	14	10	2	1
GPS	April 27, 2013	27	21	15	10	1	1
Regional Election	October 21, 2012	27	21	16	10	0	1

References

1. Álvarez-Rivera, Manuel. Election Resources .org. Election Resources http://www.electionresources.org/es/eus/index_en.html. Missing or empty |title= (help)
2. "Statute of Autonomy of the Basque Country of 1979; Title II. Of the powers of the Basque Country, Chapter I. Of the Basque Parliament.". noticias.juridicas.com. Retrieved 2015-02-26.
3. "Law 5/1990, of 15 June, of elections to the Basque Parliament.".